经济展望.pdf

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1、There is a lot to ConsiderPrepared by Stephen P.NicholsonEVP/Global Sector Strategist-Grains and OilseedsRaboResearch Food&Agribusiness January 2025Blk ItWhat Are We Thinking AboutSource:Rabobank 2024This a supply-side driven marketprices in the doldrumsAs always,weather is top-of-mindIncreased gove

2、rnment interventionTrade,Tariffs,ProtectionismGeopolitical upheavalGHG emission,climate change,environmental impacts,etc.Biofuels are not going anywhereChanges down on the farmChanges in cultural practices on the farmTechnology adoptionCommoditization vs.specialty vs.diversificationPopulation growth

3、 or not?Blk ItImpacts on Agriculture of a New AdministrationSource:Rabobank 2024The new aadministration is going to disrupt trade-it is all about tariffs.Deregulation is always welcomed,but always holds unexpected consequences.Farm Bill is still needing to be passedlikely delayed until second half o

4、f 2025Fossils fuels have a tailwind and biofuels do not.Immigration has been a cornerstone of Trumps campaigns since 2015deportation and immigration restrictions will hit agriculture particularly hard.Inflation and“higher”interest rates may not be going away,i.e.spending goals,tariffs,deportation,an

5、d tax policy.Majority of cabinet nominations are based on loyalty rather than expertise.RFK Jr is a wildcard for food and agriculture.Secretary of Agriculture nominee Brooke Rollins will have access to the President.Blk ItU.S.Soybean Exports to ChinaThe upward trajectory of U.S.soybean exports to Ch

6、ina has been broken.020,000,00040,000,00060,000,00080,000,000100,000,000120,000,000140,000,000160,000,000180,000,00005,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,00030,000,00035,000,00040,000,00045,000,000 U.S.Soybean Exports to China Brazil Soybean Production(Y2)China Soybean Imports(Y2)July 2018,