东非宏观展望-应对动荡环境.pdf

1、East African Macro OutlookNavigating a volatile environmentMay 2025ResearchJeff GableAfrica Macroeconomics ResearchWe can confidently say that the global outlook has changed3.22.82.02.53.03.5World%y/yApr24Oct24Jan25Apr251.91.81.52.02.53.0US1.50.80.51.01.52.0EU4.143.54.04.55.0China0100200300400500600

2、00040812162024GlobalUSindexSource:Absolute Strategy Research,IMF WEO,Absa ResearchGlobal policy uncertainty is beyond early Covid-era levelsThe global growth shock is likely to be large 3 The world learns about“Reciprocal Tariffs”Source:ABC News,Absa ResearchProblem statement:If a country exports mo

3、re to the US than it imports from the US,something must be unfairSimple calculation:Using trade balance,divided by the countrys exports to the US.Divide by 2Nuance:Trade in goods,2024 data,lower bound 10%tariff,energy and critical minerals excludedChallenge:No mention of what a remedy should look li

4、ke4 US Tariffs from an East African perspectiveMajor items$XKenyaClothingCoffee/teaOther5495950TanzaniaClothingPrec.stonesCoffee/tea714038UgandaCoffee/tea108First order impact likely small Direct trade with the US is relatively limited Some production cant be brought onshore Reciprocal tariff rate“c

5、ompetitive”at 10%Second order impact unclear Lower global demand Confused supply chains Commodity winners/losers Geo-political contestation Financing markets and risk appetiteSource:US Census Bureau,Absa Research5 Current expectation is that the EAC economic outlook little changed4.04.55.05.56.02223

6、24252627KenyaReal GDP,%y/yApril 2024 forecastApril 2025 forecast3.54.04.55.05.56.06.5222324252627Tanzania4.05.06.07.08.0222324252627Uganda%y/ySource:IMF WEO,Absa ResearchCountry-specific factors,rather than global tail/headwinds,are the primary driver of regional GDP growth6 From a relative perspect