变革背景下的中国经济分析.pdf

1、Anlisis de la Economa china en un contexto de cambioRena MaSenior FAR Analyst Consumer Foods sector RaboresearchA Glance of Chinese EconomySource:IMF World Economic Outlook,RaboResearch Asia-2025Today,Chinas economy is world leadingChinas economy can produce and consume more goods than any other eco

2、nomy2024 GDP comparison,US vs ChinaToday,Chinas economy is world leadingBut consumption still sees ample room to increaseSource:IMF,World Integrated Trade Solutions,World Bank,RaboResearch Asia analysis 2025(2022 data)Chinas economy is unlocking further potentialAgricultural reforms and establishing

3、 manufacturing baseEstablishing a market economy in run up to WTOmembershipGlobal economic integrationEconomic stimulus amid the Global Financial CrisisTransformation and upgrading towards the new normalReform and Opening UpIndustrial Policy PhaseNew growth drivers are necessary:new productive force

4、s and dual circulation.Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,RaboResearch Asia analysis-2025Chinas economy is unlocking further potential6Transformation and upgrading towards the new normalCOVIDSocialism with Chinese Characteristics“Common Prosperity in a moderately wealthy society”Per Capit

5、a Income upGINI coefficient down“The New China Playbook”“Rejuvenate the economy through ones own strength”Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,RaboResearch Asia analysis-2025New growth drivers are necessary:new productive forces and dual circulation.The transition is hampered by the current

6、 downturnChinas consumers reduced appetite to consume triggered the current downturnSource:World Integrated Trade Solutions,World Bank,RaboResearch Asia analysis 2025(2022 data)1.Income growth is slowing down:1990 2016:doubling every 8 years2017 2024:doubling every 15 years Mortgage loans outstandin