现金转移是否刺激宏观经济？.pptx

1、,Do Cash Transfers Stimulate the Macroeconomy?By Valerie A.RameyHoover Institution,NBER,CEPR,1,25th Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference Rethinking the Policy Toolkit in a Turbulent Global EconomyMundell-Fleming LectureNov.15,2024,2,Introduction,Numerous countries used Keynesian fiscal stimulus

2、during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID.Temporary transfers were important parts of the stimulus packages.In Ramey(JEP 2019a),I assessed the state of knowledge on multipliers on government purchases and tax rate changes,but for temporary transfers I wrote:“There is not much aggregate time serie

3、s evidence for sizeable multipliers for temporary transfers,though calibrated New Keynesian models suggest they can be high if they are targeted and if monetary policy is accommodative.”(p.106)This lecture reassesses the evidence on the effects of transfers and argues that these measures likely prov

4、ide little or no aggregate stimulus in advanced economies.,3,Outline,Historical context and current stateRebirth of Keynesian stimulus policies.Debt consequencesWhy many people believe that transfers can stimulate the economy2.New Method for Choosing Between Estimates:Historical Plausibility Analysi

5、s3.Evidence on whether temporary cash transfers stimulate the macroeconomyU.S tax rebates of 2001 and 2008New evidence from SingaporeNew evidence from Australia4.Conclusions and closing thoughts.,4,The Rebirth of Keynesian Stimulus Policies,Widely used as a stabilization tool 1930s-1970s.After 1970s

6、,monetary replaced fiscal policy as a stabilization tool.Why?New ideas and experience.1.Life-Cycle Permanent Income Hypothesis augmented with Rational Expectations.very small marginal propensity to consume(MPC)out of transitory income2.Friedman-Schwartz evidence-monetary policy is powerful.3.Fiscal