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蒙田研究所(Institut Montaigne):中国2022的增长空间(英文版)(17页).pdf

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1、Xi Jinping as an ordoliberal: Chinas margins for growth in 2022POLICY PAPER FEBRUARY 2022Xi Jinping as an ordoliberal: Chinas margins for growth in 2022Institut Montaigne is a nonprofit, independent think tank based in Paris, France. Our mission is to craft public policy proposals aimed at shaping p

2、olitical debates and decision making in France and Europe. We bring together leaders from a diverse range of backgrounds government, civil society, corporations and academia to produce balanced analyses, international benchmarking and evidence-based research. We promote a balanced vision of society,

3、 in which open and competitive markets go hand in hand with equality of opportunity and social cohesion. Our strong commitment to representative democracy and citizen participation, on the one hand, and European sovereignty and integration, on the other, form the intellectual basis for our work. Ins

4、titut Montaigne is funded by corporations and individuals, none of whom contribute to more than 3% of its annual budget.POLICY PAPER FEBRUARY 20225www.institutmontaigne.org/enThere is no desire more naturalthan the desire for knowledgeABOUT THE AUTHORFranois Godement, Senior Advisor for AsiaFranois

5、Godement is Senior Advisor for Asia to Institut Montaigne, Paris. He is also a non-resident Senior Associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., and an external consultant for the Policy Planning Staff of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Until December 2018,

6、 he was the Director of ECFRs Asia and China Program and a Senior Policy Fellow at ECFR.A long-time professor at Frances National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civi-lisations and Sciences Po, he created Centre Asie IFRI at the Paris-based Institut Franais des Relations Internationales (1985-20

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本文主要讨论了2022年中国经济增长的潜力与挑战。文章指出,尽管中国经济在2021年有所反弹,但长期趋势显示增长放缓。作者认为,中国可能已经达到世界银行定义的上中等收入国家的天花板(人均GDP 2021年为12,535美元),鉴于2021年的增长表现和人民币的重新评估(2021年对美元升值6.5%,自2020年6月以来升值10%)。文章还提到,自2020年初冠状病毒爆发以来,甚至自2021年初以来,中国政府对公共预算、信贷和利率维持了限制性政策。 尽管如此,文章指出,中国仍有一些政策空间来支持经济增长。例如,中国的出口增长继续加速,2021年贸易顺差达到6740亿美元,占预计GDP的4.4%。此外,2021年外国直接投资(FDI)流入中国达到1730亿美元,同比增长20%。 总的来说,尽管中国经济面临增长放缓的挑战,但政府仍有一定的政策空间来支持经济增长,特别是在货币政策、信贷政策和公共预算方面。
中国2022年经济增长潜力如何? 2021年中国的出口增长是否达到极限? 中国2022年面临哪些内外部挑战?
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