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1、201017.8%9.7%6.3%11.0%318,61417,74721,07022,51220,70621,15524,20624,28521,52922,757484,479 86,393 96,356 100,293 110,226 115,394 20192020202120222023*2024GDP2024GDP+4.7%2019-2024GDP+6.4%20237,7805,9057,5827,7788,0988,0137,1827,7657,1287,9468,5017,5297,6197,9148,03257,780 5,905 7,582 7,778 8,098 8,59

2、0 8,013 7,182 7,765 7,128 7,946 8,292 8,501 7,529 7,619 7,914 8,032 8,310 10,128 9,388 9,181 8,266 9,250 8,453 2019202020212022202320242024Q4-8.6%2024+1.0%23Q420237,8667,70266,177 4,526 5,732 6,472 6,386 6,546 6,915 6,204 7,369 7,179 7,134 7,240 6,223 6,402 7,756 7,866 7,702 7,586 4,920 6,985 8,630

3、8,178 7,995 9,540 2019202020212022202320242024Q4+19.3%2024+5.8%23Q420232,3791,7242,3492,9582,8972,8873,0033,2843,0683,0453,197759,160 38,849 61,278 55,220 61,438 63,022 80,720 74,297 83,171 68,755 75,547 81,454 81,103 84,416 79,107 72,827 77,623 77,980 62,629 82,139 76,208 64,814 72,159 201920202021

4、2022202320242024Q3+0.5%2024+3.7%23Q323Q1-Q3GDP43.2%71.7%814,073(-2.7%)49,843(+5.2%)36,100(-1.0%)18,024(+5.1%)3,702(-3.1%)8,115(+1.4%)6,150(+5.7%)47,526(+5.4%)15,869(+5.5%)2005-20102015-20209一线城市2800,3500)12000,18000)2100,2800)9000,12000)1400,2100)6000,9000)700,1400)3000,6000)0,700)0,3000)卫星城市二线城市三线城

5、市珠三角城市群长三角城市群成渝城市群2023年人口数量(万人)2024年社零总额(亿元)102023202414,073(-2.7%)2,186(+0.69)3,702(-3.1%)1,364(+0.73)1,576(+4.8%)548(-3.15)1,734(+6.2%)910(-4.93)110212030060090020202021202220232024“202450%60%70%80%90%100%0.500.700.901.101.301.5020202021202220232024:53.4%5621.713500.00,1,200.00200.00,500.00)100.00

6、,200.00)0.00,100.00)141.50,2.501.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00):1.052/4+7.2 pp1590.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)3/416:20249ESR99900,00058.0N/A20248420%4498,0002.79N/A2024233495,21520.06.00%-6.50%202311ESR55331,40023.0ESR5.00%-5.50%20231044219,1199.46.00%20233N/A450,0