驾驭不确定性：采用预测技术实现更好的规划.pdf

1、NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY Embracing Forecasting for Better PlanningChris Shinkle Director of Innovation,SEPWHAT WELL COVER TODAYReasons we struggle with uncertaintyWhat is a Monte Carlo forecast?Demo the Throughput ForecasterWalk through a real-world exampleDiscuss assumptions and dependenciesQ/A timeL

2、ink to all spreadsheets and examplesIn a 1927 essay,the legendary horror author H.P.Lovecraft wrote that“the oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear,and the oldest and strongest kind of fear is fear of the unknown.”-https:/ Lovecraft recognizedand decades of psychological research has borne

3、outis that the human brain is uniquely vulnerable to uncertainty.Uncertainty is so vexing that some people are willing to accept a worse outcome in exchange for uncertaintys removal.“In people with generalized anxiety disorder,research shows that theyre more likely to make choices that they know in

4、the long run will benefit them less,just because it resolves the uncertainty.”https:/ naturally tend to see situations in ONE of two ways:1.Events are certain and can therefore be managed by planning,processes,and reliable budgets2.Or,they are uncertain,and we cant manage them well at all.-https:/hb

5、r.org/2020/02/develop-a-probabilistic-approach-to-managing-uncertaintyHOW DO YOU TO FIGURE THIS OUT TODAY?When will my software project be done?chrisshinkleFORECASTING USING THE MONTE CARLO METHODA Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot

6、 easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables.It is a technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty.chrisshinkleSOFTWARE PROJECT EXAMPLE10 Stories*in week80 Stories left to completeWhen will it be done?*Could also use story points,tasks,number of items to complet