节点风险：如何辨别信息并避免常见陷阱.pdf

1、Nodal Risks:What To Believe and How to Avoid Common PitfallsMay 1st,2024Olivier Beaufils,Market Lead,ERCOT2Source:Aurora Energy ResearchAurora provides power market leading forecasts&data-driven intelligence for the global energy transitionRegular detailed coverageAnalytics on demandPower marketsRen

2、ewables&PPAsStorageHydrogenNatural gasCarbonElectric vehiclesH2CO2So PauloAustinOaklandGrid&CongestionStockholmSydneyMelbourneTokyoSingaporeDelhiNew YorkBerlinParisRomeAthensOxfordMadrid14officesand two more coming soon600+market experts850+subscribing companies150+transactions supported in 2023Noda

3、l Risks:What To Believe and How to Avoid Common Pitfalls3Average Real-Time SPPs1 7PM June 20,2023Sources:Aurora Energy Research,ERCOTA market like ERCOT is susceptible to extreme price differentiation,with increased offers rather than scarcity pricing driving high prices in 2023Average price3 breakd

4、own when hourly ATC price$500/MWh$/MWh1)Settlement Point Price.2)2023 data YTD through October 31.3)Lower Rio Grande Valley.3)Real-Time price.February 2021 excluded.5,000$/MWh185$/MWhIn LRGV2,the RT prices were as low as$185/MWh due to severe congestion,a$4,457/MWh basis to the South hub.95%of real-

5、time nodal prices exceeded$4,000/MWh as margins tightened by high demand and low wind paired with solar ramp-down.HoustonAustinSan AntonioLubbockDallas-Fort Worth6998093959349031,611366123220(24%)2018782(40%)2019372(49%)202068(7%)2021367(26%)202248(3%)202329201,9567671,0251,3931,691Energy price(syst

6、em lambda)Reliability adderORDC adderThe ORDC adder made up just 3%of ATC value when prices exceed$500/MWh.Nodal Risks:What To Believe and How to Avoid Common PitfallsNumber of hours when hourly ATC price$500/MWh285117237510612023 has seen extreme price differentiation in the market1Value has been i