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阿格斯:我国炼油行业发展展望报告(28页).pdf

上传人: AG 编号:608977 2024-09-01 28页 3.43MB

1、我国炼油行业发展展望我国炼油行业发展展望 2024 Argus Media group.All rights reserved.12024年年9月月阿格斯成品油分析师阿格斯成品油分析师李亭亭李亭亭 2024 Argus Media group.All rights reserved.2The Argus Media group(referred to herein as“Argus”)makes no representations or warranties or other assurance,express or implied,about the accuracy or suitabi

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本文主要探讨了2024年中国炼油行业的发展展望。关键点如下: 1. 十四五期间,中国炼油产能将快速增长,预计增加9940万吨/年,其中新一体化项目贡献66%。 2. 十五五期间,炼油产能增速将放缓至2000万吨/年,总炼能维持在10亿吨/年水平。 3. 汽油需求达峰后快速回落,预计2030年汽油年均需求较十四五下降2.5%至1.56亿吨。 4. 柴油需求受经济转型和电气化影响,预计下滑2%至1.93亿吨/年。 5. 航煤需求增长加速,预计2030年航煤需求达5400万吨,较今年增长36%。 6. 炼油行业面临出口限制,汽柴煤出口总量受限,出口利润不稳定。 7. 亚洲成品油供应压力增加,2027年前,亚洲(除中国)近4500万吨/年的新增炼能,70%以上来自印度。 综上,中国炼油行业面临需求下降、出口限制和亚洲供应压力等多重挑战。
"中国炼油行业未来预测如何?" "新能源汽车对汽油需求的影响有多大?" "亚洲成品油市场供应压力将如何变化?"
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