规划者和建模者的旅行预测指南.pdf

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1、1Presented by:Jay EvansJune 5,2023Travel Forecasting Guidance for Planners and ModelersA1:Travel Modeling and Forecasting Guidance23-5Travel Forecasting6-8TFGuide9-18Six-Step Process to Use19Updating TFGuide20Software Insights21-22Implementation Project23Outreach24Improvements25ConclusionTravel Fore

2、casting Guidance for Planners and ModelersPresentation TopicsTF-GUIDE.ORG/WELCOME3“Too many methods,too little timewhat do I use for this planning project?”Too many methods,too little timewhat do I use for this planning project?Number of New Methods Keeps GrowingTravel forecasting practitioners stru

3、ggle to keep up4NCHRP 8-94 Responded with Several Goals Develop guidance for selecting travel forecasting methods:A decision-support tool Guidance document Connect modelers,planners,and decision makers through a common language5METHODPLANNING PROGRAMS AND PLANSREQUIREMENTSPERFORMANCE MEASURESCONSTRA

4、INTSCURRENT METHODSIdentify Travel Forecasting Methods What best meets an agencys planning needs?Weigh the costs and benefits of method(s)and make recommendationsEvaluate Method Selection DecisionUsing TFGuide6Identify data and resources needed to estimate,calibrate,and validate methodCommunicate st

5、rengths and limitations to decision-makers7We identified other methods that could be added later:Developed the interface so that this would be easy We also envisioned a future where users could provide feedback on technical content:Content can improve over time and through use Programs,requirements,

6、resources,and methods can be added or modified with new informationScopeLimited to Travel Forecasting Methods8Users Set up scenarios that reflect travel forecasting needs Identify requirements and constraints Weight elements according to agency priorities Review method recommendationsAdministrators