俄亥俄州运输部通用商业机构合成器.pdf

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1、1John Gliebe,Cambridge Systematics,Inc.presented topresented byOhio DOT General Purpose Business Establishment SynthesizerTRB Innovations in Travel Analysis and Planning ConferenceGreg Giaimo,WSPKrishnan Viswanathan,WRAJune 5,20232MotivationOhio DOT wants to use Synthetic Establishments in its next

2、generation of modeling tools for better accuracy and response behaviorDisaggregate Short-Distance Commercial Vehicle Model Simulation agents defined by industry and number of employeesCV demand generation typically non-linear with respect to size of establishmentFuture CV technology adoption rates(E

3、V,CAV)vary by firm size and typeEasier to explicitly represent distribution/fulfillment centersAggregate Long-Distance Freight Model Use in FAF disaggregation Direct links to Commercial Vehicle ModelMPO Models(“3C”ABMs)Activity destination choice attractors Richer set of variables to use in choice u

4、tilities3The VisionStart from a base year of disaggregate establishment records and create a future year set of synthetic establishments using an evolutionary process with the ability to track establishments Establishment births,deaths,moves,and employment growth Why?Much greater heterogeneity in es

5、tablishments than households Prominent businesses matter in many planning studies4Modeling RequirementsMatch TAZ control totals by industryReflect trends in number of establishments by industryReflect trends in size distribution of establishments by industryReflect observed birth,death,and move rate

6、s5Data:Longitudinal Establishment RecordsQuarterly Census of Earnings and Wages(QCEW)2000-2021,with reconciliation by ODOT staff using other sourcesDisaggregate establishment records usage:1.Trend analysisa)Establishment births,deaths,and moves by industryb)Growth in number of establishments by indu