美银美林_全球基金经理调查报告2017年_35页（36页）.pdf

1、 BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a result, investors should be aware that t

2、he firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in ma

3、king their investment decision.their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page Refer to important disclosures on page 1818 to to 1919. . 1171100511711005 Global Fund Manager Survey Icarus takes flightIcarus takes flight Investment StrategyInvestment Strategy 14 February 201714 Febr

4、uary 2017 Icarus takes flight Icarus takes flight 1. FMS cash dips in Feb to 4.9% from 5.1%, but cash level high (10-year avg = 4.5%) we remain long stocks meanwhile 15% say “stagflation” (a 3-month low) and while 43% expect “secular stagnation” this figure down sharply from 88% one year ago. 3. FMS

5、 ranks most likely bear market catalysts as follows: protectionism = 34%, higher rates = 28%, financial event = 18%, weaker EPS = 15%. FMS says best protectionist investment (and thus barometer of protectionist risk) = gold. 4. FMS says most crowded trade = long US dollar (= big reason US$ down YTD)

6、. FMS asset allocation data since 2001 for everything else; note US$, EUR data since 2001 for everything else; note USD, EUR defensive = staples, telcos for “sell” signals, the median return for global equities would have been 5.8% loss over the subsequent three months with a hit-rate of 77%. Table