2021年领航投资对经济和市场的展望报告 - 领航投资（英文版）.pdf

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1、Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2021: Approaching the dawn Vanguard Research December 2020 While the global economy continues to recover as we head into 2021, the battle between the virus and humanitys efforts to stanch it continues. Our outlook for the global economy hinges critically on h

2、ealth outcomes. The recoverys path is likely to prove uneven and varied across industries and countries, even with an effective vaccine in sight. In China, we see the robust recovery extending in 2021 with growth of 9%. Elsewhere, we expect growth of 5% in the U.S. and 5% in the euro area, with thos

3、e economies making meaningful progress toward full employment levels in 2021. In emerging markets, we expect a more uneven and challenging recovery, with growth of 6%. When we peek beyond the long shadow of COVID-19, we see the pandemic irreversibly accelerating trends such as work automation and di

4、gitization of economies. However, other more profound setbacks brought about by the lockdowns and recession will ultimately prove temporary. Assuming a reasonable path for health outcomes, the scarring effect of permanent job losses is likely to be limited. Our fair-value stock projections continue

5、to reveal a global equity market that is neither grossly overvalued nor likely to produce outsized returns going forward. This suggests, however, that there may be opportunities to invest broadly around the world and across the value spectrum. Given a lower-for-longer rate outlook, we find it hard t

6、o see a material uptick in fixed income returns in the foreseeable future. 2 Vanguard Investment Strategy Group Vanguard Global Economics and Capital Markets Outlook Team Joseph Davis, Ph.D., Global Chief Economist Americas Roger A. Aliaga-Daz, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Americas Kevin DiCiurcio, CFA K