2021 全球宏观展望报告 - 荷兰国际集团（英文版）.pdf

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1、Global Macro Outlook November 2020 European Quarterly What a year! As this wild and turbulent year draws to a close, we look back in our Global Macro Outlook 2021, and focus on what to expect beyond lockdowns, the virus and the vaccine. We hope you will enjoy our analysis as we move into a year, whi

2、ch as far as we are concerned, could definitely do with somewhat less excitement than 2020 11 November 2020 THINK Global Macro Outlook The darkness before the dawn THINK Economic and Financial Analysis 17 November 2020 Global Macro Outlook November 2020 2 Contents Global Macro Outlook 2021: The dark

3、ness before the dawn 3 The US in 2021: The Biden bounce 5 Eurozone in 2021: Digital, fiscal and monetary changes 8 China in 2021: Quantifying quality growth 11 UK in 2021: Another year of tough decisions 13 Asia in 2021: Ascendent 16 Philippines in 2021: The economy continues to lose steam 20 Brazil

4、 in 2021: The focus is on fiscal policy 24 CEE in 2021: Bracing for the post winter rebound 27 Central Banks in 2021 30 Key political events in 2021 35 Is the ongoing tech war the start of another cold war? 38 International trade in 2021: Plenty of challenges, but recovery in sight 40 What Brexit an

5、d Biden will mean for the world in 2021? 43 How to deal with soaring debt levels 45 Rates: Far from risk free 47 Austria in 2021: This time its different 50 Belgium in 2021: Testing the limits 52 Finland in 2021: Strong Covid-19 report card provides no guarantees 54 France in 2021: Growing crises ma

6、ke recovery uncertain 56 Germany in 2021: The U-turn 59 Greece in 2021: Between vulnerabilities and opportunities 61 Ireland in 2021: The lock of the Irish 63 Italy in 2021: In search of a safe path 65 Portugal in 2021: Structural factors point to a weak recovery 68 Spain in 2021: Many economic hurd