2020年全球电信5G投资升级周期 -惠誉国际评级（英文版）（9页）.pdf

1、 Special Report 14 September 2020 1 Corporates Telecommunications Global 5G Investment Upcycle in Global Telecoms Telcos to Press on Despite Uncertainties, Raising Pressure on Credit Profiles Special Report 14 September 2020 2 Corporates Telecommunications Global 5G Investment Upcycle in Global Tele

2、coms Telcos to Press on Despite Uncertainties, Raising Pressure on Credit Profiles 5G deployments in 1H20 have progressed slowly in most parts of the world amid the coronavirus pandemic and the corresponding delays in spectrum auctions. However, Fitch Ratings expects rising pressure on the sectors c

3、redit metrics, with higher 5G spending in 2021-2022 and the tough economic environment delaying economic returns. Nearly half of the 90 publicly rated companies in our global telecom portfolio (excluding tower companies) have low rating headroom, underlining the importance of prudent capital managem

4、ent through staggered investments, dividend cuts, and non-core asset sales to preserve balance-sheet strength. Diverging 5G Priorities Diverging capex patterns have emerged during the pandemic, with 5G priorities advancing in South Korea, China, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia and the US. We expect the

5、 pandemic effects on 5G rollout to be short-lived, leading to a resumption of 5G-related investments in 2021. 5G adoption will advance unevenly across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. Europe and the Middle East are likely to ramp up 5G rollout in 2021-2022, followed by Latin America. The alternative

6、of deprioritising 5G may put telcos at risk of falling behind rivals, as capex and spectrum spending are vital in preserving competitive capabilities in an increasingly commoditised sector. Uncertainties to Fuel 5G Risk Policy shifts to restrict the deployment of Chinese 5G equipment will raise inve