新冠病毒：全球经济临危- 经济合作与发展组织（英文版）（18页）.pdf

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1、 OECD Interim Economic Assessment Coronavirus: The world economy at risk 2 March 2020 Summary The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has already brought considerable human suffering and major economic disruption. Output contractions in China are being felt around the world, reflecting the key and risin

2、g role China has in global supply chains, travel and commodity markets. Subsequent outbreaks in other economies are having similar effects, albeit on a smaller scale. Growth prospects remain highly uncertain. On the assumption that the epidemic peaks in China in the first quarter of 2020 and outbrea

3、ks in other countries prove mild and contained, global growth could be lowered by around percentage point this year relative to that expected in the November 2019 Economic Outlook. Accordingly, annual global GDP growth is projected to drop to 2.4% in 2020 as a whole, from an already weak 2.9% in 201

4、9, with growth possibly even being negative in the first quarter of 2020. Prospects for China have been revised markedly, with growth slipping below 5% this year, before recovering to over 6% in 2021, as output returns gradually to the levels projected before the outbreak. The adverse impact on conf

5、idence, financial markets, the travel sector and disruption to supply chains contributes to the downward revisions in all G20 economies in 2020, particularly ones strongly interconnected to China, such as Japan, Korea and Australia. Provided the effects of the virus outbreak fade as assumed, the imp

6、act on confidence and incomes of well-targeted policy actions in the most exposed economies could help global GDP growth recover to 3 per cent in 2021. A longer lasting and more intensive coronavirus outbreak, spreading widely throughout the Asia- Pacific region, Europe and North America, would weak