联合国：2020年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）对全球贸易的影响-联合国贸易和发展会议（英文版）（7页）.pdf

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1、 UNCTAD/DITC/INF/2020/1 *This document has not been formally edited OVERVIEW “It is unavoidable that the novel coronavirus epidemic will have a considerable impact on the economy and society” - Chinas president Xi Jinping, televised address, February 23, 2020. “The spread of the new coronavirus is a

2、 public health crisis that could pose a serious risk to the macro economy through the halt in production activities, interruptions of peoples movement and cut-off of supply chains” - Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso. G20 gathering in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, February 24, 2020. “Honda Motor Co. will r

3、educe vehicle output at two of its domestic plants in Saitama Prefecture for a week or so in March due to concerns about parts supply from China where a new coronavirus outbreak continues to disrupt economic activities” - Honda spokesperson, March 3, 2020. Besides its worrying effects on human life,

4、 the novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) has the potential to significantly slowdown not only the Chinese economy but also the global economy. China has become the central manufacturing hub of many global business operations. Any disruption of Chinas output is expected to have repercussions elsew

5、here through regional and global value chains. Indeed, most recent data from China indicate a substantial decline in output. China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a critical production index, fell by about 22 points in February (Figure 1a). This index is highly correlated with exports

6、 and such a decline implies a reduction in exports of about 2 percent on an annualized basis. In other words, the drop observed in February spread over the year is equivalent to -2 percent of the supply of intermediate goods. Indicators on shipping also suggest a reduction in Chinese exports for the