美国安全与新兴技术中心(CSET)：2024人工智能与劳动力培训的未来研究报告（中译版）（44页）.pdf

1、Issue BriefDecember 2024December 2024AI and the Future of Workforce TrainingAuthorsMatthias OschinskiAli CrawfordMaggie WuAI and the Future of Workforce TrainingAuthorsMatthias OschinskiAli CrawfordMaggie WuCenter for Security and Emerging Technology|1 Executive Summary The emergence of artificial i

2、ntelligence(AI)as a general-purpose technology is poised to transform work across a variety of industries and job roles.Previous waves of technological change mainly led to job displacement and wage pressures for blue-collar workers while enhancing productivity and wages for white-collar workers.In

3、contrast,AIs impact could be more pervasive across all occupational categories,including knowledge workers and those with advanced education.Recent studies indicate that up to 80 percent of U.S.workers might have at least 10 percent of their work activities affected by large language models,with app

4、roximately 19 percent of workers potentially seeing half or more of their work activities impacted.The nature of this transformation depends largely on two factors:the degree to which AI can perform or enhance an occupations core tasks,and whether AI serves as a substitute for or complement to human

5、 workers.Occupations with high AI exposure but low complementarity face the greatest risk of disruption,highlighting the need for comprehensive retraining and upskilling initiatives.This situation is particularly critical given that technical skills now become outdated in less than five years,on ave

6、rage.Analysis of future workforce demands reveals the following trend:while technical skills remain important,accounting for about 27 percent of in-demand skills,the majority of crucial skills are nontechnical.Foundational skills(such as mathematics and active learning),social skills(including socia