【研报】交通运输行业航空重构繁荣系列之五：数观中报拐点临近重构繁荣-20200909（20页）.pdf

1、 2020.9.9 S1010519040004 2020Q213% 29.7%Q315% 1 2021 Q213%Q3 Q2122 29.7%17.7%6.7% 44%77% 24%32% 890%75%Q3 15% 6 1 2021 APP80%87% Q2 Q3Q2Boeing AirBus77% 73%2021 9 202196- -10.8%18.4% ARJ2127 122020 2%2021 7 (RPK-ASK) -5.5%-7.5% 2020Q213% 29.7%17.7%6.7%Q3 15%6 1 2% EPS PE 19A20E 21E 19A 20E 21E 6.28

2、0.17-0.47 0.77 37 NA 8 5.09 0.20-0.38 0.51 25 NA 10 7.52 0.44-0.50 0.65 17 NA 11 48.11 2.010.34 2.31 24 NA 21 12.30 0.54 -0.27 0.44 23 NA 28 Wind 202097 2020.9.9 13% . 1 Q213%48% . 1 13pcts30% . 3 . 5 . 5 80%87% . 7 . 9 . 9 . 10 . 12 . 12 . 14 . 14 . 15 2020.9.9 12020H146.6%57.3%43.4%. 1 2 2020H173.

3、9% 48.1% 50.1%43.6% . 1 32020H181.794.44.1 . 1 42717.1% . 2 5Q224%32%40% . 2 62020H1105%180% . 3 72020H17.413.7pcts . 3 82019H132%2020H119% . 3 9 20205667%7940% . 3 102020H119% . 4 112020H159.3%49.0%56.5%. 4 122020H10.4% . 4 132020H14.14.33.2 . 5 1429.7%17.7%6.7% . 5 15737.6%3699.6 . 5 16890% . 5 17

4、201944.1% . 6 18201952.2% . 6 197ASK41.3%52.1%8.4% . 7 207RPK48.8%58.0%17.7% . 7 21771.7%72.8%82.1% . 7 2270% . 8 252020Q2-5.938.00.24 . 9 262020Q13613925.2 . 10 272020H13.6pcts5.4pcts . 10 28Q2BoeingAirBus77%73% . 10 291-77(ARJ2111) . 10 30 . 11 3120192.7%4.5%6.3%. 12 322019ASK9.4%5.1%10.6% . 12 33

5、ARJ212712 . 12 347 (RPK-ASK)-5.5%-7.5% . 13 35202097APB1.161.24 . 13 36202097HPB0.740.99 . 14 2020.9.9 1 . 8 2 . 11 3 . 15 2020.9.9 1 13% Q213%48% Q2122 81.7 94.485.44.16.7Q2 13.1%121.644.6%3.6%22.4% 62.5% 44%77%9.813.6pcts 6 890% Q2 12020H146.6%57.3% 43.4% 2 2020H173.9% 48.1%50.1%43.6% 32020H181.79

6、4.44.1 -46.6% -54.6% -57.3% -43.4% -48.3% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2019H22020H2YOY 76.7 41.9 26.2 0.79 73.9% 48.1% 50.1% 43.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 () 16.9 31.4 19.4 8.5 5.8 -81.7 -94.4 -85.4 -4.1 -6.8 -120 -10