关键经济观点：一切都与着陆有关.pdf

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1、May 2024Global Macro Q2 2024 Still Resilient,With Gradual Rate Cuts AheadTransunion SummitPresentation Roadmap|Mini-Sections Baseline and Big 3(US,Europe,China)Narratives Latest High Frequency Data Inflation and Policy Rates US Outperformance Forecasts and Risks Concluding Thoughts 2LinkedIn Newslet

2、ter|Essential Economics Essential Economics is published every Friday morning on LinkedIn before 8am New York time.EE features publications by our economists and credit research teams,but also from other parts of S&P Global(on DeFi,sustainability)EE also follows our economists on the air(major media

3、 interviews)as well as on the conference circuit(as keynote speakers,moderators and panelists).We have over 26,000 subscribers after three years join us!34Baseline and Big 3 Narratives7High Frequency Activity DataInflation|Coming Down,But Still Too High:Core Services Sticky12 Inflation headline and

4、core peaked in late 2022.Now falling-stable almost everywhere.Reflecting energy and food price moderation,headline is now below core in most jurisdictions.But central banks target core(which they more directly influence).Core inflation is still above target(2%typically),meaning financial conditions

5、need to stay tight.Is the“last mile”really harder?Must depend on demand pressures.Sources:Central Bank websites.0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%US PCEUKCanadaAustraliaEurozoneJapanInflation -Latest DataHeadlineCorePeak HeadlinePeak CoreDM Policy Rates Have Peaked|Long Pause Before Gradual Cuts W

6、e are 400-500 bps into the cycle;most CBs on hold,RBA hiked in Nov,BOJ raised rates in Mar.Core inflation above headline:good for consumers,bad for central banks CBs waiting for a decisive downturn in sequential core inflation 2021 forecast miss means CBs leaning higher to bolster credibility Market