麦肯锡：快进的中国：COVID-19如何加速塑造中国经济的五个主要趋势（英文版）(21页).pdf

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1、May 2020 Fast forward China: How COVID-19 is accelerating 5 key trends shaping the Chinese economy Nick Leung, Joe Ngai, Jeongmin Seong, Jonathan Woetzel Over the last few months, COVID-19 has spread across the world, uniting humanity in a shared experience that has highlighted the vulnerability of

2、our societies. As the first country to grapple with the crisis, China has been on the frontlines both of post-COVID-19 economic recovery, and of the societal changes the pandemic has precipitated. Efforts to stabilize the domestic economy are already well underway, and though Chinas first-quarter gr

3、oss domestic product declined 6.8 percent over the previous year, according to government statistics, our simulations suggest that economic activity may have bottomed out in the first quarter.1 As that recovery takes shape, several important shifts in the make-up of Chinas economic landscape have al

4、ready become apparent. COVID-19 has accelerated pre-existing trends, ushering in the arrival of a future we were likely already on track to realize. In this report, we discuss five trends shaping the Chinese economy that have been accelerated, or “fast forwarded,” as a result of the onset of the COV

5、ID-19 crisis (Exhibit 1). 1 Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan, Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time, March 2020, safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time Exhibit 1 Five acceleratin

6、g trends in China since COVID-19 Source: McKinsey analysis 2 Declining global exposure Rising importance of domestic markets, technology, and capital. 3 Rising competitive intensity Technology and agility drive winners to capture the lions share of industry value. Observations from China Five accele