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麦肯锡(McKinsey):美国工作的未来(英文版)(124页).pdf

上传人: Me****y 编号:16019 2020-08-01 124页 4.40MB

1、July 2019 The future of work in America People and places, today and tomorrow McKinsey Global Institute Since its founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics research arm of McKinsey

2、it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit Download and listen to MGI podcasts on iTunes or at Cover image: Stocksy United The future of work in America People and places, today and tomorrow Susan

3、Lund | Washington, DC James Manyika | San Francisco Liz Hilton Segel | New York Andr Dua | New York Bryan Hancock | Washington, DC Scott Rutherford | Washington, DC Brent Macon | Atlanta July 2019 Preface Automation technologies promise to deliver major productivity benefits that are too substantial

4、 to ignore. They are also beginning to reshape the American workplace, and this evolution will become more pronounced in the next decade. Some occupations will shrink, others will grow, and the tasks and time allocation associated with every job will be subject to change. The challenge will be equip

5、ping people with the skills that will serve them well, helping them move into new roles, and addressing local mismatches. This report represents the next stage in our ongoing body of research into the capabilities, potential, and economic impact of these technologies. This work began with A future t

6、hat works: Automation, employment and productivity, in which we analyzed the automation potential of every occupation by looking at the extent to which its constituent activities can be handled by currently demonstrated technologies. In Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transition in a time of autom

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本文主要探讨了美国未来工作的前景。根据麦肯锡全球研究院的分析,美国各地区的经济状况差异显著,25个大城市和增长中心自大萧条以来创造了大部分就业机会,而54个落后城市和约2000个农村县则面临人口老龄化、失业率高和受教育程度低的问题。自动化可能会加剧这些差异,同时劳动力流动性处于历史低点。 此外,自动化可能会加剧劳动力市场的两极分化。高中及以下学历的工人被自动化取代的风险是大学学历工人的四倍。由于教育机会有限,西班牙裔工人面临最大的风险,其次是非洲裔美国人。近1500万18至34岁的年轻工人可能会失业,这引发了对他们职业道路的担忧。50岁以上的工人也面临1150万个高风险职位。中等收入工作的减少可能会继续。 因此,雇主需要管理大规模的劳动力转型,这可能涉及重新定义业务流程和劳动力需求、重新培训并将一些人转移到新角色以及创建持续学习计划。这可能是一个升级工作并使其更具吸引力机会。雇主做出的选择将影响其所在社区的方方面面。
自动化如何影响美国不同地区的就业? 哪些人群最有可能因自动化而失业? 雇主如何应对自动化带来的劳动力转型?
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