货币政策对保险绩效的影响：前瞻观点.pdf

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1、The Impact of Monetary Policy on Insurance Performance:A Forward ViewMay 15,20232Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 2023$2,231Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 202334Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 20235Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 2023Triple-I Monetary Policy Outlo

2、ok-UPDATEFederal Funds Rate Projected Appropriate Policy Path(Median)Federal Reserve Board of Governors2022(June)2022(Dec)20232024Longer RunBoard LeansDovishDovishHawkishHawkishHawkishMarch 2022 1.0%1.9%2.8%2.8%1.6%2.4%December 20210.3%0.9%1.6%2.1%0.6%0.9%FMOC Statement May 04,2022Deciphering“Fed Ta

3、lk”Although(negates)economic activity edged down in first quarterHousehold spending and business investment remained strongunemployment rate has declined substantiallyInflation elevated(but)related to the pandemic,higher energy prices,and broader price pressuresUkraine upward pressure on inflation l

4、ockdowns in China exacerbate supply chain disruptions.The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks(no mea culpa)6Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 20237Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 20238Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 20239Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05

5、202310Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 202311Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 202312Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 202313Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 202314Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 2023Triple-I Dr.Michel Leonard for CAS|06 05 2023Replacement cost

6、s for all P&C lines increased 40.42%from 2019 to 2022-even after the recent decreases in U.S.CPI.Cumulative P&C Replacement Costs Increases(Yo3Y%2019-22)All P&C Lines:40.42%Homeowners:55.44%Private Auto:45.56%Commercial Property:39.85%Chart of the Week 03 27 2023 Cumulative P&C Replacement Cost Incr