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中亚学院:2025中亚区域季度经济监测报告-第十七期(40页).pdf

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1、季度经济监测报告汉斯霍尔扎克耶丽维拉库尔玛纳利耶娃陆世亮王锐 2025年7月中亚学院No.17 中亚学院中亚学院 季度经济监测报告季度经济监测报告 汉斯汉斯霍尔扎克霍尔扎克 耶丽维拉耶丽维拉库尔玛纳利耶娃库尔玛纳利耶娃 陆世亮陆世亮 王锐王锐 2022025 5 年年 7 7 月月 中亚学院季度经济监测报告 2025 年 7 月 第2页(共38页)Disclaimer This 17th issue of the CAREC Institute Quarterly Economic Monitor is co-authored by Hans Holzhacker,consultant,Elv

2、ira Kurmanalieva,Senior Economist,Shiliang Lu,Research Specialist,and Marina(Rui)Wang,Senior Research Specialist of the CAREC Institute.The views expressed in this Monitor are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the CAREC Institute,its funding entities,or

3、 its Governing Council.The CAREC Institute does not guarantee accuracy of the data included in this Monitor and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of its use.The terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with the CAREC Institutes official terms.The CAREC Institute accepts no lia

4、bility or responsibility for any partys use of this Monitor or for the consequences of any partys reliance on the information or data provided herein.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area,or by using country names in the Monitor,the authors did not

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1. **经济增长强劲但未来或放缓**:2025年一季度CAREC地区GDP平均增长6.0%,服务业(+7.6%)和制造业(+5.6%)为主要驱动力,但受全球不确定性影响,2025-2026年增速预计放缓至5.0%和4.5%。 2. **通胀分化与货币政策宽松**:多数成员国通胀上行(如哈萨克斯坦11.8%),但巴基斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、中国等央行降息应对,货币供应量增速仍处高位(19.5%)。 3. **贸易结构变化**:大宗商品出口国(除黄金外)出口萎缩,乌兹别克斯坦黄金出口增43%;区域内行业内贸易占比升至35%,中国主导(GL指数60%)。 4. **绿色转型与合作深化**:中国、哈萨克斯坦运行碳市场,欧盟CBAM 2026年实施将影响贸易;第二届中国-中亚峰会签署55份协议,推动基建、AI及绿色合作。
**中亚经济增速?** **通胀趋势如何?** **贸易有何变化?**
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