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中亚学院:2025中亚区域季度经济监测报告-第十八期(29页).pdf

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1、季度经济监测报告耶丽维拉库尔玛纳利耶娃姚怡昕陆世亮 2025年10月中亚学院No.18 中亚学院中亚学院 季度经济监测报告季度经济监测报告 耶丽维拉库尔玛纳利耶娃耶丽维拉库尔玛纳利耶娃 姚怡昕姚怡昕 陆世亮陆世亮 20252025 年年 1010 月月 中亚学院季度经济监测报告 2025 年 10 月 第2页(共27页)Disclaimer This 18th issue of the CAREC Institute Economic Monitor is co-authored by Elvira Kurmanalieva,Senior Economist,Yixin Yao,Senior

2、Research Specialist,and Shiliang Lu,Research Specialist.Authors would like to express thanks for Hans Holzhacker and Zhang Jian for providing comments and helping with updates.The views expressed in this Monitor are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the

3、 CAREC Institute,its funding entities,or its Governing Council.The CAREC Institute does not guarantee accuracy of the data included in this Monitor and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of its use.The terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with the CAREC Institutes official

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1. **经济表现**:2025年前9个月CAREC地区GDP平均增长6.5%,工业(+8.9%)和服务业(+6.1%)为主要驱动力,农业复苏(+6.2%)。 2. **通胀压力**:9月CPI同比上涨6.0%,食品(+5.4%)和服务业(+6.7%)为主要推手,成员国分化明显(如哈萨克斯坦13.0% vs 中国-0.3%)。 3. **贸易动态**:地区出口平均增20.5%,进口增14.1%,贸易逆差占GDP比重升至9.0%;域内贸易占GDP的9.3%,中国为核心伙伴。 4. **未来展望**:国际金融机构预测2025年GDP增速放缓至5.3%,2026年进一步降至4.6%,受全球需求疲软、大宗商品波动及金融环境收紧影响。 5. **国别亮点**:吉尔吉斯斯坦(+10.0%)、塔吉克斯坦(+8.2%)增长强劲;中国提前达成全年增长目标(前三季度+5.2%)。
**中亚经济如何?** **通胀有何变化?** **贸易逆差扩大?**
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