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中亚学院:2025中亚区域季度经济监测报告-第十六期(39页).pdf

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1、季度经济监测报告汉斯霍尔扎克耶丽维拉库尔玛纳利耶娃陆世亮王锐 2025年4月中亚学院No.16 中亚学院中亚学院 季度经济监测报告季度经济监测报告 汉斯汉斯霍尔扎克霍尔扎克 耶丽维拉耶丽维拉库尔玛纳利耶娃库尔玛纳利耶娃 陆世亮陆世亮 王锐王锐 2022025 5 年年 4 4 月月 中亚学院季度经济监测报告 2025 年 4 月 第2页(共37页)Disclaimer This 16th issue of the CAREC Institute Quarterly Economic Monitor is co-authored by Hans Holzhacker,consultant,Elv

2、ira Kurmanalieva,Senior Economist,Shiliang Lu,Research Specialist,and Marina(Rui)Wang,Senior Research Specialist.The views expressed in this Monitor are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the CAREC Institute,its funding entities,or its Governing Council.

3、The CAREC Institute does not guarantee accuracy of the data included in this Monitor and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of its use.The terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with the CAREC Institutes official terms.The CAREC Institute accepts no liability or responsibilit

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1. **经济增速**:2024年CAREC地区GDP平均增长5.7%(2023年为4.6%),2025-2026年预计放缓至4.9%和4.5%。吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、格鲁吉亚增速超8%,中国增长5.0%。 2. **产业结构**:服务业增长最活跃(平均7.6%-7.9%),制造业贡献较大(平均3.3%-7.5%),采矿业波动明显(如蒙古国增长50.8%,哈萨克斯坦收缩4.7%)。 3. **通胀与政策**:2025年2月地区平均通胀5.4%,食品价格上涨3.5%。哈萨克斯坦、蒙古国、乌兹别克斯坦加息应对通胀,货币供应增速放缓。 4. **贸易表现**:净出口国顺差收窄(如哈萨克斯坦从0.6%降至0.5%),乌兹别克斯坦出口激增57.6%。区域内贸易占出口总额35.8%,矿产品为主。 5. **风险与机遇**:全球贸易紧张局势可能抑制需求,但“中间走廊”供应链重组和绿色转型(如可再生能源投资)带来新机遇。
**中亚经济增速?** **贸易紧张影响?** **入世进展如何?**
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