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美国农业部(USDA):2026印度谷物与饲料产业更新报告(中译版)(14页).pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:June 18,2026 Report Number:IN2026-0034 Report Name:Grain and Feed Update Country:India Post:New Delhi

2、Report Category:Grain and Feed Prepared By:Santosh Singh Approved By:Mark Ford Report Highlights:On May 29,2026,the Indian Metrological Department(IMD)forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Season June-September,2026 predicted below-normal rainfall.On May 27,2026,the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers

3、Welfare raised the third advance estimates of production of grains for the Indian crop year(ICY)2025/2026(July-June)to a record 376.6 million metric tons(MMT)on higher than last years record harvests of rice,wheat,corn and pulses.Post has incorporated the latest official production estimates for MY

4、2024/2025 and MY 2025/2026 in the PSDs for rice,wheat,corn,millet,sorghum,and barley.Based on the latest trade data,MY 2025/2026 corn exports estimate is raised to 2.4 MMT and imports lowered to 50,000 MT.Consumption and stocks have been adjusted to reflect the production and trade changes.Page 2 of

5、 14 IMD Forecasts Below Normal 2026 Monsoon On May 29,2026,the Indian Metrological Department(IMD)released the updated long-range forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Season June-September,2026 predicting below-normal rainfall over the country due to expected El Nino conditions during the season.Curre

6、ntly,neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)conditions are transitioning toward El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region,and latest climate models suggest El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season and are likely to continue during the monsoon season

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1. **2026年季风预测**:印度气象局预测2026年西南季风降雨量将低于正常水平(长期平均值的90%),因厄尔尼诺现象,可能影响ICY 2026/2027作物种植。 2. **2025/2026年产量创新高**:印度谷物总产量达3.766亿吨,创纪录。其中水稻1.5402亿吨、小麦1.2066亿吨、玉米5509万吨,均超上年。 3. **贸易调整**:2025/2026年玉米出口预估上调至240万吨,进口降至5万吨;水稻出口预计2300万吨,小麦出口2000万吨。 4. **库存与消费**:水稻期末库存上调至5400万吨,玉米消费增至4800万吨;政府通过MSP采购稳定市场,水稻采购量达5415万吨(截至2026年6月4日)。 5. **政策支持**:政府提高2026/2027年季风作物最低支持价(MSP),鼓励种植水稻、玉米,同时推动油籽和豆类种植以调整结构。
印度粮价为何跌? 印度玉米出口增? 印度粮食创新高?
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