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S-Curve Economics:2026全球钢铁转型情景报告:中国、欧盟与美国(英文版)(91页).pdf

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1、Scenarios for the Global Steel Transition 1 COVER Scenarios for the Global Steel Transition The European Union,the United States and China 2 Scenarios for the Global Steel Transition Acknowledgements We are grateful to Varun Sivaram and Lindsay Iversen(Council on Foreign Relations)for co-hosting the

2、 United States scenarios workshop in Washington,DC;Marta Torres Gunfaus(IDDRI)for co-hosting the European Union workshop in Brussels;and Professor Wang Pu(Chinese Academy of Sciences)for hosting the workshop in Beijing.We extend our sincere thanks to all workshop participants and interviewees for th

3、eir time,insights,and thoughtful engagement.All discussions were held under Chatham House Rule,and participants contributions were invaluable to the development of the scenarios and analysis presented in this report.The views expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and do not necess

4、arily reflect those of participants or our funders.Authors Joe Morrisroe,S-Curve Economics CIC Simon Sharpe,S-Curve Economics CIC Alister Wilson,Waverley Consultants Author(s)2026.This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.About us S-Curve Economics CIC is a non-prof

5、it research organisation focused on advancing the understanding of the economics and diplomacy of the energy transition.Our analysis focuses on the power,road transport,and steel sectors,and cross-cutting issues of economics,policy appraisal,and diplomacy.Find out more at www.scurveeconomics.org.Wav

6、erley Consultants is a group of practitioners in futures thinking,specialising in horizon scanning,scenario planning,and strategy development.Its clients include governments,universities,and businesses.Find out more at:https:/www.waverley.cloud/Scenarios for the Global Steel Transition 3 Contents 1

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1. **全球钢铁转型面临双重挑战**:传统钢铁生产受产能过剩和关税冲击,同时需向近零排放技术转型以应对气候变化。 2. **区域情景差异**: - **欧盟**:最可能走向“堡垒欧洲”(保护主义),但“绿色多边主义”(国际合作)最受青睐,需解决清洁电力成本和产业政策协调问题。 - **中国**:最可能“技术先见”,主导清洁钢产能(占全球产量超50%),但面临国内需求下降(较2021年降16%)和贸易壁垒。 - **美国**:最悲观,认为“钢铁新太阳能” scenario(中国主导清洁钢)更可能,国内政策支持不足。 3. **国际合作关键**:需统一清洁钢标准、协调碳定价、建立绿色铁贸易伙伴关系,以加速全球转型。 4. **核心结论**:单边行动效果有限,需结合国内政策与国际协作,推动清洁钢市场形成。
钢铁转型路在何方? 绿色钢铁如何主导市场? 谁将引领钢铁革命?
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