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联合国：2026年中期世界经济形势与展望报告（中译版）（34页）.pdf

上传人： 小*** 编号：1269290 2026-06-18 34页 1.51MB

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1、MID-YEAR UPDATEWorld Economic Situation and Prospects 2026The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2026 updates the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 released on 8 January 2026.The report is prepared by the Global Economic Monitoring Branch in the Economic Analysis and Policy D

2、ivision of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026MID-YEAR UPDATEWorld Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2026The global economy is under stress as the crisis in the Middle East clouds the growth outlook,stokes inflationary pre

3、ssures,and adds to uncertainty across financial markets.Global growth is now projected at 2.5 per cent in 2026 and 2.8 per cent in 2027downward revisions to an already subdued outlook.Although these revisions are modest,forecast uncertainty has risen considerably,as outcomes hinge on the conflicts d

4、uration and scale;a faster-than-expected resolution could restore confidence,while a prolonged disruption would deepen the downgrade.The closure of the Strait of Hormuzthrough which about one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passis driving fuel,fertilizer,and food prices higher

5、 and straining global supply chains.Global inflation is now expected to reach 3.9 per cent in 20260.8 percentage points above the January forecastreversing a disinflationary trend and eroding household purchasing power.Financial market volatility has increased,with risks of renewed portfolio outflow

6、s and tighter external financing conditions if the conflict persists.Central banks are expected to hold rates higher for longer to curb inflation,while governments face rising fiscal pressures from weaker growth alongside necessary expenditures to cushion crisis impacts.Resilient labour markets and

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1. **全球经济下调**：2026年全球经济增长预期下调至2.5%（原2.7%），2027年2.8%（原2.9%），主因中东冲突引发能源冲击。 2. **通胀回升**：全球通胀2026年预计达3.9%（原3.1%），能源、食品价格飙升，冲击低收入国家。 3. **供应链中断**：霍尔木兹海峡关闭致全球20%石油供应受阻，推高燃料、化肥成本，加剧供应链压力。 4. **脆弱经济体承压**：燃料和食品进口国财政赤字扩大，债务负担加重，约4500万人可能陷入急性粮食不安全。 5. **政策应对**：央行维持高利率，财政支出增加（全球赤字率升至3.3%），但发展中国家政策空间受限。 6. **贸易与投资**：全球贸易增长放缓至2.7%，AI相关贸易成亮点，但地缘风险抑制投资。 7. **生产力挑战**：全球劳动生产率增长持续放缓（2021-2025年仅1.8%），发展中国家与发达国家差距扩大。
**油价飙升影响？** **AI能否救经济？** **穷人更难了吗？**
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