联合国：2026年中期世界经济形势与展望报告（英文版）（34页）.pdf

1、MID-YEAR UPDATEWorld Economic Situation and Prospects 2026The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2026 updates the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 released on 8 January 2026.The report is prepared by the Global Economic Monitoring Branch in the Economic Analysis and Policy D

2、ivision of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026MID-YEAR UPDATEWorld Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2026The global economy is under stress as the crisis in the Middle East clouds the growth outlook,stokes inflationary pre

3、ssures,and adds to uncertainty across financial markets.Global growth is now projected at 2.5 per cent in 2026 and 2.8 per cent in 2027downward revisions to an already subdued outlook.Although these revisions are modest,forecast uncertainty has risen considerably,as outcomes hinge on the conflicts d

4、uration and scale;a faster-than-expected resolution could restore confidence,while a prolonged disruption would deepen the downgrade.The closure of the Strait of Hormuzthrough which about one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passis driving fuel,fertilizer,and food prices higher

5、 and straining global supply chains.Global inflation is now expected to reach 3.9 per cent in 20260.8 percentage points above the January forecastreversing a disinflationary trend and eroding household purchasing power.Financial market volatility has increased,with risks of renewed portfolio outflow

6、s and tighter external financing conditions if the conflict persists.Central banks are expected to hold rates higher for longer to curb inflation,while governments face rising fiscal pressures from weaker growth alongside necessary expenditures to cushion crisis impacts.Resilient labour markets and