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英国财政研究所(IFS):2026英国青年 NEET 率为何上升?基于行政数据的成因与趋势研究报告(英文版)(42页).pdf

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1、lnstitute for Fiscal Studies Why has the NEET rate risen?Understanding trends and drivers using administrative dataIFS Report Jed Michael Tom Waters Xiaowei Xu Why has the NEET rate risen?Understanding trends and drivers using administrative data Jed Michael Tom Waters Xiaowei Xu Copy-edited by Judi

2、th Payne Published by The Institute for Fiscal Studies The Institute for Fiscal Studies,May 2026 ISBN 978-1-80103-262-9 The authors are grateful for funding from The Kings Trust,King Charles III Charitable Fund and the ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy(ES/Z504634/1).They th

3、ank Richard Rigby and others from The Kings Trust for their insightful comments throughout the project.The Kings Trust is working for young people,supporting 11-to 30-year-olds who are unemployed or struggling at school to get their lives on track.The youth charity was founded in 1976 by His Majesty

4、 The King when he was HRH The Prince of Wales and has helped more than 1 million young people to date,giving them the skills and confidence to change their lives.Three in four young people on Kings Trust courses move into work,education or training.Founded in 1979 by His Majesty King Charles III,and

5、 inspired by the values of harmony and sustainability,King Charles III Charitable Funds mission is to transform lives and build sustainable communities.The Fund supports His Majestys charitable interests through its grant making programmes and incubating charitable projects and initiatives.We are co

6、mmitted to helping people and communities to change the world around them,creating lasting improvements to peoples lives and a sustainable future for all.Why has the NEET rate risen?Understanding trends and drivers using administrative 2 data Foreword from The Kings Trust As The Kings Trust marks 50

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1. **NEET率上升趋势**:2022-2025年,16-24岁青年NEET率从10.8%升至12.8%(+1.8个百分点),接近2015年水平。 2. **就业与福利数据**: - 薪酬就业率下降4.3个百分点(54.9%→50.6%),接近金融危机(5.4%)和疫情(6.5%)跌幅。 - 18-24岁领取失业福利比例上升1.4个百分点(至10.9%),其中健康相关福利占0.8个百分点。 3. **结构性因素**: - NEET率高于历史经济周期预期,且区域青年与成人就业变化无强相关性,表明非纯周期性原因。 - 最低工资上涨(如16-17岁2024年实际增18%)、AI影响及心理健康问题可能为结构性驱动因素。 4. **年龄与地域差异**: - 16-17岁就业降幅最大(-7.3%),18-20岁福利领取增幅最高(+2.2%)。 - 伦敦就业降4.0%,北部地区健康相关福利占比更高。
NEET率为何上升? 青年就业困境何解? 最低工资影响几何?
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