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麦肯锡(McKinsey):2026美国制造业回流之困研究报告(英文版)(61页).pdf

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1、May 2026AuthorsRebecca J.AndersonJeff CondonOlivia WhiteEric KutcherShubham SinghalMike Conway Anu MadgavkarCamillo LamannaRamping up manufacturing in America?Copyright 2026 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Cover image:Big crane with american flag stars and stripes izanbar/Getty Images.All inter

2、ior images Getty Images.Confidential and proprietary.Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey&Company is strictly prohibited.Ramping up manufacturing in America?McKinsey Global InstituteThe McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990.Our mission is to provide a fact bas

3、e to aid decision making on the economic and business issues most critical to the worlds companies and policy leaders.We benefit from the full range of McKinseys regional,sectoral,and functional knowledge,skills,and expertise,but editorial direction and decisions are solely the responsibility of MGI

4、 directors and partners.Our research is currently grouped into five major themes:Productivity and prosperity:Creating and harnessing the worlds assets most productively Resources of the world:Building,powering,and feeding the world sustainably Human potential:Maximizing and achieving the potential o

5、f human talent Global connections:Exploring how flows of goods,services,people,capital,and ideas shapeeconomies Technologies and markets of the future:Discussing the next big arenas of value and competition We aim for independent and fact-based research.None of our work is commissioned or funded by

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1. **美国制造业进口依赖**:2025年美国制造业进口额达3万亿美元,其中25%(约7500亿美元)为“Achilles' heels”(兼具关键性、供应集中度和地缘政治距离),5%(1400亿美元)三者兼具,如智能手机、笔记本电脑和稀土磁体。 2. **产能扩张需求**:若完全满足国内需求,暴露产品的产能需平均翻倍(扩张系数2.0),部分产品(如AI服务器)需扩张超10倍;整体制造业平均扩张系数为1.3。 3. **现有产能潜力**:利用现有闲置产能(利用率提升至近十年峰值)可增加6600亿美元产出,但仅能覆盖6%的暴露产品进口(450亿美元),对贸易逆差(1.2万亿美元)影响有限。 4. **转型成本**:解决关键供应链风险需新增产能,预计成本约2万亿美元(占GDP 6%),涉及技能、基础设施等挑战。
美国制造能崛起吗? 谁卡住了美国供应链? 工厂满产能能解困吗?
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