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贝罗纳基金会:2025北方海航道:俄罗斯工业布局与地缘扩张、环境代价及北极航运风险报告(英文版)(74页).pdf

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1、THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE:Russias industrial and political expansion,its environmental costs,and Arctic shipping risks2About Bellona:Bellona is an international science-based non-profit organization headquartered in Norway.Founded in 1986 as an action and protest group,Bellona has evolved into a recogn

2、ized technology-and solution-oriented organization with offices in Oslo,Brussels,Berlin,and Vilnius.Today,more than 70 engineers,ecologists,physicists,chemists,economists,political scientists,and journalists work at Bellona.Bellona makes every effort to ensure that the information published in this

3、report is accurate and free from copyright infringement but does not guarantee or accept any legal responsibility for the accuracy,completeness,interpretation,or usefulness of the information that may result from reading this report.2025 Bellona.All rights reserved.This copy is intended for personal

4、,non-commercial use only.Users may download,print,or copy excerpts from the report for their own non-commercial use.No part of the report may be reproduced without referencing Bellona as the source.Commercial use of the report requires prior consent from Bellona.https:/etc.bellona.orgetcbellona.orgT

5、he Northern Sea Route:Russias industrial and political expansion,its environmental costs,and Arctic shipping risksAuthors:Ksenia Vakhrusheva,Ekaterina Blokova,Vsevolod Levchenko,Yuri SergeevPublished by:Bellona Foundation,VilniusWith the financial support of the European Union.The views and opinions

6、 expressed in the report are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union or CINEA.Neither the European Union nor the granting body can be held responsible for them.Cover photo:Sabetta,Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug,Russia.LNG tanker VLADIMIR RUSANOV.Apri

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1. **俄罗斯北方海路(NSR)的战略地位**:作为连接欧亚的航运捷径,2024年货运量中84%为油气,是俄罗斯工业与地缘扩张的核心。 2. **环境风险**: - 航行排放污染物(黑碳、硫氧化物)及温室气体,加剧气候变暖。 - 油泄漏事故风险高,应急基础设施匮乏,2024年至少7艘“影子舰队”油轮无监管运营。 - 噪声污染、外来物种入侵及核污染遗留问题突出。 3. **航行挑战**:冰情多变(2021年秋20余艘船只被困)、浅水航道(最浅处仅11米),依赖核动力破冰船护航。 4. **国际制裁影响**:俄罗斯拒绝加入IMO重燃油禁令(2024年生效),制裁推动“影子舰队”增长,限制矿产开发与航运合作。 5. **政策目标**:俄罗斯计划2035年前扩建基础设施,目标年货运量8000万吨,但环境与安全风险未获有效管控。
北极航线风险? 俄罗斯野心何在? 环境代价几何?
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