全球林地投资组合展望.pdf

1、Michael BarbaraExecutive Director|Director of AustralasiaCampbell Global,a J.P.Morgan Global Timberland Portfolio PerspectiveMarch 30/31,2026FOR THE 2026 FOREST VALUATION SUMMIT ONLY.NOT FOR FURTHER USE OR DISTRIBUTIONCarbon evolving into a disciplined capital enhancer,not a hype-driven overlay2FOR

2、THE 2026 FOREST VALUATION SUMMIT ONLY.NOT FOR FURTHER USE OR DISTRIBUTION Diversifying real asset returns:low correlation to traditional equities and credit;return drivers tied to biological growth and land values rather than corporate earnings and broader market forces.Inflation sensitivity:timber

3、and land prices have tended to move with replacement costs and inflation-linked end markets(housing,packaging),supporting real-return objectives.“Biological growth”as a built-in compounding engine:trees keep growing regardless of market cycles,creating the option to defer harvest and sell into stron

4、ger price environments(a form of embedded optionality).Income+capital appreciation:mix of harvest cash yield and longer-term land appreciation/higher-and-better-use optionality.Perceived downside preservation:tangible asset,finite land base,and the ability to manage harvest timing to smooth cash flo

5、ws through market cycles.From“timber+land”to“natural capital”:timberland is increasingly underwritten as a platform that can produce multiple ecosystem-linked revenue streams,not just timber and land appreciation.Decarbonisation as a capital allocation driver:more institutional mandates explicitly t

6、arget climate alignmenttimberland can support portfolio-level decarbonisation via sequestration and wood substitution benefits.Carbon credits moved from optional upside to a more explicit underwriting line item(selectively):Greater focus on when carbon is bankable(durable rules,credible MRV,enforcea