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欧洲储能经济学.pdf

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1、Energy Storage Economics in EuropeLondon Energy Storage Summit 2026Sonia GrunenwaldFebruary 25,20261Energy Storage Economics EuropeSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Pricing based on usable capacity.Prices in 2023-25 show all durations and are global volume-weighted averages of survey pricing data based on BN

2、EFs annual regional installation forecast;2023 price was updated in 2024.Prices between 2017 and 2022 are only for 4-hour systems.Historical prices have been adjusted using June to June inflation rates based on the US Consumer Price Index(CPI).Prices converted using exchange rates at the end of Octo

3、ber each year.Historical prices for turnkey energy storage systems6304373853012903662831691170100200300400500600700201720182019202020212022202320242025$per kilowatt-hour,usable(real 2025)-31%Turnkey energy system costs drop once againFalling costs drive competition2Energy Storage Economics EuropeFal

4、ling costs drive competitionFive forces behind the decline3Energy Storage Economics EuropeSource:BloombergNEF.Note:BEV stands for battery electric vehicle.Volume-weighted average pack prices,by sector01002003004005006002016201920222025$per kilowatt-hour(real 2025)E-bus and commercial(excludingChina)

5、Two-and three-wheelersE-bus and commercial(China)Stationary storagePassenger BEV1:Battery pack prices are falling further45%drop year-on-yearFalling costs drive competition4Energy Storage Economics EuropeSource:BloombergNEF,company announcements.Note:Data as of June 2025.MWh is megawatt-hour.Selecte

6、d companies energy storage battery cell and system size02004006008001,0001,2001,400EVE EnergyREPT BATTEROCornexHithiumHithiumNaradaHithiumCATLCornexBYDREPT BATTEROCALBBYDSvoltSvoltSvoltSunwodaCATLSvoltGotionAmpere-hours5MWh+6MWh+7MWh+2:Battery cells and storage systems are becoming largerFalling cos

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1. **电池成本持续下降**:2025年欧洲储能系统成本降至169美元/千瓦时(可用容量,2025年实际价格),较2017年630美元/千瓦时下降73%。 2. **五大降价驱动因素**:电池包价格下跌(2025年同比降45%)、电池及系统容量增大(如7MWh+系统)、长时储能普及、中国电池过剩(71%供应商认为供过于求)、供应商降价去库存。 3. **欧洲成本优势**:2025年欧洲储能系统成本(178美元/千瓦时)为美国(317美元)的56%,受益于全球供应链转移。 4. **商业模式演变**:欧洲储能收入来源多元化,包括套利、容量市场、电网服务等,但频率响应收入因供应过剩下降。 5. **项目瓶颈**:并网、许可及供应链问题导致2025年项目平均延迟4-6个月,非设备因素为主要障碍。
电池成本为何降? 欧洲储能前景如何? 价格战何时休?
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