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在不断增长的市场中应对储能系统过度建设问题.pdf

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1、Timera Energy Proposal February 26Timera Energy1Timera EnergyLevel 1230 Crown PlaceLondon EC2A 4EStimera-+44(0)207 965 4541February 26Navigating BESS overbuild in a growing marketEnergy Storage Summit 2026Timera Energy Proposal February 26Timera Energy2Timera offers expertise on value&risk in energy

2、 marketsSpecialist energy consultancySpecialist energy consultancyFocus on LNG and European gas&power assetsExtensive industry expertiseExtensive industry expertisePractical knowledge from senior industry rolesPragmatic commercial focusPragmatic commercial focusInvestment,value monetisation&market a

3、nalysisStrong client baseStrong client baseleading energy companies(producers,utilities,funds)Leading industry blog Leading industry blog 30,000+regular readers,publications,conferencesOur clients includeOur clients includeTimera Energy Proposal February 26Timera Energy30510152020262027202820292030G

4、WPipeline rangeFCRaFRR010203020262027202820292030GWCM pipelineTotal ancillary demandNewer BESS markets to follow GB precedentNewer BESS markets to follow GB precedentBESS pipeline to outstrip ancillary demandBESS pipeline vs ancillary demandBESS pipeline vs ancillary demand1.Early BESS entrants have

5、 captured scarcity&ancillary driven upside2.Pipelines are scaling fast across Europe:50-70GW BESS projected in NW&Central Europe across next 5 yrs3.Ancillary demand is finite oversupply set to drive value compression(as in GB)Ancillary-driven returns are temporary.Long-term value must tap deeper mar

6、ketsSource:Timera,NESO,ENTSOETimera Energy Proposal February 26Timera Energy4GB GB 2hr BESS DA margin distribution2hr BESS DA margin distributionRES growth drives widening margin distributionRES growth drives widening margin distributionWholesale value supported by growing volatility1.DA outcomes wi

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1. Timera为专业能源咨询公司,聚焦LNG及欧洲天然气与电力资产,服务领先能源公司,拥有3万+行业博客读者。 2. 欧洲BESS(电池储能)项目管道5年内将达50-70GW,远超辅助服务需求,将导致价值压缩(如英国先例)。 3. 长期价值依赖批发市场波动,英国2小时BSS日前价差分布因可再生能源增长而扩大,但平均价差因气价下跌收窄。 4. 融资需通过随机建模评估尾部风险,债务规模按P95下行收入设定,股权策略基于平均回报,对冲需覆盖全分布结果。
**BESS市场前景?** **储能如何盈利?** **BESS风险如何管理?**
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