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AMRO:2026东盟与中日韩区域经济展望报告(英文版)(104页).pdf

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1、AASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026ASEAN+3REGIONALECONOMIC OUTLOOK2026ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026iThe report is produced by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office(AMRO)for the use of the AMRO members and has been reviewed by the Executive Committee.Its publication has been approved

2、 by the Executive Committee of the AMRO.Any interpretations or conclusions expressed are not necessarily those of the AMRO members.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area,or by using the term“member”or“country”in this report,AMRO does not intend to ma

3、ke any judgements as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.As Timor-Leste is not currently a member of AMRO,it falls outside AMROs formal surveillance mandate.Consequently,Timor-Leste is not included in the ASEAN+3 regional economic assessment,except where specifically noted for info

4、rmational context.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of the AMRO,all of which are specifically reserved.The factual information covers data for the period up to March 13,2026,except when stated otherwise.2026 ASEAN+3 Ma

5、croeconomic Research Office ISSN:2529-7538Printed in SingaporeASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office10 Shenton Way,#15-08 MAS Building Singapore 079117 enquiryamro-asia.orgwww.amro-asia.orgiiASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026ForewordAcknowledgmentsAbbreviationsChapter 1.Macroeconomic Prospects an

6、d Challenges HighlightsI.Economic Developments in 2025:Better Than Expected Performance Trade Held Firm Despite Unprecedented Trade Policy Uncertainty Domestic Demand Anchored Growth Inflation Remained Low and Stable Financial Conditions Eased After April Volatility Stronger External Position Provid

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1. **经济表现超预期**:2025年东盟+3地区GDP增长4.3%,高于4月关税冲击后的3.8%预期,主要受AI驱动的半导体出口和区域内贸易强劲支撑。 2. **通胀与政策空间**:通胀保持低位(0.9%),低于2014-2019年均值,为宽松货币政策提供空间;国际储备增至6.5万亿美元(占全球40%),增强外部缓冲。 3. **2026-2027年展望**:预计增长放缓至4.0%,主因美国关税拖累外需;通胀升至1.4%-1.5%,受能源价格和补贴调整影响。 4. **风险与政策挑战**:风险偏向下行,包括能源供应中断、贸易紧张和金融波动;需保持政策灵活性,应对高不确定性环境。
区域经济韧性如何? 贸易政策影响几何? 通胀走势如何?
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