Fabby Tumiwa_Toward a Shared Prosperity Southeast Asia - China Green Development Cooperation.pdf

1、ASEANCHINAGREEN DEVELOPMENTCOOPERATIONFrom Aspiration to ActionFabby TumiwaChief Executive OfficerInstitute for Essential Services Reform(IESR)MIECF 2026 Macao,27 March 2026Toward a Shared Prosperity:Southeast Asia-China Green Development CooperationTHE IDEA01The StakesWhy development cooperation mu

2、st be green02The Geopolitical ContextStrategic relevance under current conditions03Six Priority Cooperation AreasFrom principles to practical programs04Governance&DeliveryStructuring for accountability and results05The OpportunityCost of inaction vs.green pathwayWHY“GREEN”IS NOT OPTIONALThree forces

3、 make green cooperation an imperative,not a choiceClimate PhysicsASEAN faces$2835B annually in climate damages by 2030.Fossil infrastructure=growing liabilities.Economics Have ShiftedSolar is cheapest new electricity across ASEAN.Battery costs down 90%in a decade.Green is now the rational choice.Tra

4、de CompetitivenessEU CBAM is operational.ASEANs export industries face a competitiveness cliff without decarbonization.CHINAS CLEAN ENERGY LEADERSHIPA natural comparative advantage for green cooperation80%+Global SolarModule Production75%+Lithium-IonBattery Manufacturing300+GWSolar Installedin 2024

5、Alone70%+Global BESSDeploymentASEANs need:$210B+in power sector investment through 2030 150200 GW new renewables by 2035 Massive grid modernizationGEOPOLITICAL RELEVANCEStrategic AutonomyClean energy is a domain where ASEAN can engage China without security sensitivities.Partnership on merits,not al

6、legiance.Counter RecarbonizationGreen frameworks prevent industrialization(e.g.nickel)from increasing coal dependency.Guardrails for climate-industrial coherence.Minilateral Climate ModelSector-specific,results-oriented cooperation when global multilateral processes(UNFCCC,G20)are under strain.Lever