T4-A7 开发极端降雨和洪涝灾害的综合预测能力.pdf

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1、OFFICIALOFFICIALOFFICIALT4-A7 Developing an integrated predictive capability for extreme rainfall and inundation(June 2025 Update)OFFICIALDr.Carlos Velasco-Forero,Paul Fox-Hughes,Jayaram Pudashine,Dragana Zovko-Rajak,Wendy Sharples,Jiawei Hou,Foad Brakhasi,Carla Mooney,David Wilke,Karen Hudson,Victo

2、ria Heinrich,Navid Ghajarnia,Christopher Pickett-Heaps,This research project is funded and supported by Natural Hazards Research Australia.Gillieston Heights is isolated by the rising waters of Wallis Creek.Photo courtesy Eugene Koen(Maitland and District Historical Society,2022)OFFICIALOFFICIAL2Fla

3、sh Flooding Preparedness,Response,Forecast,Warning and CommunicationPart of a collection of research projects funded by Natural Hazards Research Australia(NHRA)and the Bureau of Meteorology(the Bureau)focused on flooding preparedness,response,forecast,warnings and communication.T2-A2 Flash flooding

4、case studies to improve predictions and the communication of uncertaintyT3-A4 Long-Range Flood Outlook for Strategic PreparednessT4-A7 Developing an integrated predictive capability for extreme rainfall and inundationreview mechanisms which may lead to heavy rainfall and subsequent flash floodingass

5、ist understanding of the reasons for potential uncertainty in those forecasts and warnings and enhance the efficiency of communicationexamine the physical science context of a series of events,including the mesoscale meteorology,model short-term rainfall and potential to predict land surface inundat

6、ionWallis Creek July 2022,Hobart-May 2018,Adelaide Nov 2023OFFICIALOFFICIAL3Our ApproachDeveloping an integrated predictive capability for extreme rainfall and inundation(project NHRA T4-A7)Flash flooding:rapid onset speed(within minutes to hours),short-term duration(hours to a day),very localised(u