【招银国际】Production cut in Qatar to further increase supply risks; +ve to aluminium price-260304（2页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 4 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Sector Update Materials Materials-Production cut in Qatar to further increase supply risks;+ve to aluminium p

2、rice Production cut in Qatar to further increase supply risks;+ve to aluminium price Whats new?Qatalum,a 50/50 JV owned by Horsk Hydro(NHY NO,NR)and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company(QAMC QD,NR),announced that it has initiated a controlled shutdown of its aluminium production since 3 Mar,due to t

3、he suspension of gas supply.The shutdown is expected to be completed by end of Mar.A full restart could take 6-12 months with no schedule on when to restart,according to the Company.Analysis:Qatalum has a nameplate capacity of aluminium of 648kt with a maximum capacity of 690kt.Qatalum was running a

4、t full utilisation in 2025 and we estimate it accounted for 0.9%of global output.Qatalum did not mention the scale of controlled shutdown,but we assume that it could be meaningful.Implication.We believe the production cut by Qatalum,together with the 620kt of capacity in Iran which is vulnerable to

5、operational risks(link),will further tighten the aluminium supply in 2026E.Given the uncertainties in the Middle East,we will not be surprised to see further production cut in the region.To recap,the Middle East accounted for roughly 9%of the worlds aluminium output(73.8mt)in 2025.Meanwhile,we conti

6、nue to expect slow progress of capacity construction in Indonesia.All these will offer upside potential to the aluminium price(our base-case assumption is+15%YoY this year).What to do with stocks?Amid the volatile market at the moment,we believe Chinese aluminium makers offer good resilience as a he