开幕主题演讲：“大做多：回调还是见顶？”.pdf

1、The Big LongPullback or Peak?Ronald-Peter StferleManaging Partner and Fund Manager,Incrementum AGPrecious Metals Summit Zurich,November 10,20252The Big Short Reduced3Its not easy to stand apart from mass hysteriato believe that most of whats in the financial news is wrong,to believe that most import

2、ant financial people are either lying or deluded without being insane.49.4%Annual Return since 1971From Old Myths to New Narratives5-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01976198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024S&P 500 vs.US 10YS&P 500 vs.GoldBonds and Stocks Are Positively Correlated Sin

3、ce 2022 AgainRolling 2-Year Correlation of S&P 500 and Gold,and S&P 500 and US 10Y,19722025Source:Reuters Eikon,Incrementum AG 6Stocks60%Bonds40%Stocks45%Bonds15%Safe-Haven Gold15%Performance Gold10%Commodities10%Bitcoin5%Source:Incrementum AGFrom Bonds to Bullion Rethinking the Core Portfolio7The S

4、tatus Quo of GoldIn times of uncertainty,gold is not just a safe haven its a signal.Jeffrey Gundlach8Everything Is Relative In Life9Source:Alexander Stahel,Bloomberg Gold Is Giving us a Lesson in Statistics:a 4.5-sigma eventIn a“normal”world,something like this would occur only once every 240,000 tr

5、ading days111,7002,2002,7003,2003,7004,2004,70001/202307/202301/202407/202401/202507/202501/2026Gold-5%-10%-15%-20%Source:LSEG,Incrementum AGDownside Potential:A Decline to 3,750 USD Would Correspond to a 10%CorrectionGold,in USD,01/202311/2025USD 4,140(-5%)USD 3,920(-10%)USD 3,700(-15%)USD 3,480(-2

6、0%)13Source:LSEG(as of 11/05/2025),Incrementum AGGold Performance Since 2000 in Various Currencies Gold Performance in Major Currencies,20002025 YTDYearUSDEURGBPAUDCADCNYJPYCHFINRAverage2000200452.4%13.3%28.0%27.3%26.8%52.3%52.7%9.1%51.5%34.8%20052009150.1%136.8%197.0%118.1%118.7%106.3%126.8%127.6%1