亚太经合组织交通脱碳的政策选择.pdf

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1、Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatPolicy Options for Decarbonizing Transportation in APECDaniel SperlingUniversity of California,Davis,USAAuto Dialogue 3613 September 2022Most important strategy to decarbonize economies is renewable electricity.Next most important strategy is vehicle electrificationby

2、far most important and effective transportation decarbonization strategy.Other strategies to decarbonize transport are important,but more compelling for other reasonsReduce vehicle use(VKT)Increase transit useLand use managementWalking and micromobilityRecent Announcements.The question regarding EVs

3、 is not if,but how and whenAutomakers All Phasing Out Combustion EnginesThanks to Continuing Reductions in Battery CostsExtraordinary Success Story(IEA,2022)IndiaChinaN AmericaEuropeBP Energy Outlook,2022Scenarios:New Momentum(NMS)Accelerated(ACC)Net Zero(NZ)Rapid Increase in Global EV Sales Expecte

4、dEVs reduce carbon and costs,as well as improve public healthVehicle CostsFuel CostsTotal Costs-25-20-15-10-5052015202020252030203520402045Cost Difference(billion$)Detailed Modeling for California Finds Net Cost Savings Starting in 8 yearsEVs Are Good for Economy(as well as Environment)Source:UC ITS

5、(Brown,Sperling et al,2021)Q:So why do we need government intervention for EVs,since they will soon be economically superior options(and already are in some applications)Buyers are“conservative”Concern over resale value,future price of energy,loss aversion,range anxietyVehicle fleets are a little di

6、fferent:fleet owners more likely to use TCO as decision variableIncentives will be needed for a long time-but some incentives are far more effective than othersand incentives dont need to be paid by taxpayers A:Consumers dont make decisions based on total cost of ownership(TCO)EV Policy Agenda1.Refo