经济展望.pdf

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1、NowwhatdoIdo now?Prepared by Stephen P.NicholsonEVP/Global Sector Strategist-Grains and OilseedsRaboResearch Food&Agribusiness January 2026What a year it has been 2Source:Sosland Publishing Source:Rabobank 2024Blk ItStages of Behavior during a“Typical”Row Crop CycleINCOME PEAKSPROFITABILITY RETURNSO

2、perating capital dries up5.Negotiate for lower land rents7.Yields maximized6.Increase inputs usage20252024?4.Cutback on planting densities for some crops2.Reduce equipment purchases/used prices fall?5.Farmers lean on financingNPK20221&3.External and internal dynamics impact fertilizer demandNPK2023D

3、ivergent paths of cost and return40.511.522.533.54Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan 2020=1GlyphosateFertilizerCommodityReturnReturnCostCostBlk ItU.S.fertilizer affordability indexes Source:USDA,December 3

4、1,2025U.S.farm payments are on track for the second highest on record-10,000,000010,000,00020,000,00030,000,00040,000,00050,000,000Commodity ProgramsProduction flexibility contract paymentsFixed direct paymentsCotton programs paymentsAverage Crop Revenue Election Program(ACRE)Price Loss Coverage(PLC

5、)Agriculture Risk Coverage(ARC)Counter-cylical paymentsLoan deficiency paymentsMarketing loan gainsDairy/Milk programsConservationSupplemental and ad hoc disaster assistanceMarket Facilitation ProgramMisc1,000 USD There has been$10 bln distributed(https:/www.fb.org/market-intel/emergency-commodity-a

6、ssistance-program-ecap-what-you-need-to-know)from Emergency Commodity Assistance Program(ECAP)in 2025.The One Big Beautiful Bill Act(One Big Beautiful Bill Act:Final Agricultural Provisions|Market Intel|American Farm Bureau Federation)increased the farm safety net support through ARC/PLC(increasing