关键时刻：评估关键半导体供应中断的脆弱性.pdf

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1、Alex C.Newkirk When the Chips are Down:Assessment of Vulnerability to Disruptions to the Supply of Critical SemiconductorsWhen the Chips are Down:Assessment of Vulnerability to Disruptions to the Supply of Critical SemiconductorsAlex C.Newkirk Lawrence Berkeley National Lab,Center of Expertise for E

2、nergy Efficiency in Data Centers;Carnegie Mellon University,Department of Engineering and Public PolicyOCP SPECIAL FOCUS:MARKET IMPACT&OCP ADOPTION STORIESMajor economic impact from chip shortages in 20213Median buyer inventory fell from 40 days supply to 5(Swanson&Edmondson,2022)Inflation acceleran

3、t(Gordon&Clark,2023)Automotive semiconductors were key bottleneckSignificant research(Alessandria et al.,2023)and public interestResearch Question:What would be the economic and social consequences of the loss of access to specific types of semiconductors?Methods and Data Research Sub-questionMethod

4、DataWhat semiconductor components go into an end-user product?Literature review,Component origin assessmentAcademic and industry publications;Bills-of-material from component origin assessmentsFor which of those components would experts consider loss of access to be catastrophic?Expert elicitation(q

5、uantitative estimates),Triangulation with public dataExpert perceived sectoral exposure;Bounding with productivity,I/O,and disaster outage dataHow does the duration of the component shortage impact outcomes?Expert elicitation(open-ended questions)Outage costs estimates,system and component failure t

6、imeline estimates,qualitative descriptionsWhat options exist to change the product needed and how long does it take to make that change?Expert elicitation(open-ended questions),Triangulation with historical dataInterviews with product designers&process engineers;Historical case studies of redesigns,