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北美企业债券发行：2024年Q4达520笔390亿美元，疫情后稳步复苏

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所属报告：

人工智能行业专题（18）：上限几何？北美科技巨头Capex空间测算及ROI回报拆解-260715（46页）.pdf

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2018年第一季度至2025年第三季度，北美企业债券发行市场呈现明显的周期波动。2020年Q1受疫情冲击跌至100笔、总收益100.7亿美元的低点，此后逐步恢复。2024年Q4发行520笔、总收益390亿美元，为近年高位。发行笔数在2019年Q4达到560笔峰值后回落，2024-2025年稳定在350-520笔区间。数据来源：SEC、国信证券经济研究所整理

2018-2025年北美企业债券季度发行数量与收益
季度	发行数量（笔）	总收益（百万美元）	平均收益（百万美元）	中位收益（百万美元）
2018 Q1	345	280,000	345,000	270,000
2018 Q2	330	295,000	330,000	260,000
2018 Q3	325	250,000	325,000	240,000
2018 Q4	345	210,000	340,000	310,000
2019 Q1	350	200,000	350,000	290,000
2019 Q2	280	120,000	250,000	270,000
2019 Q3	420	440,000	440,000	350,000
2019 Q4	560	530,000	530,000	500,000
2020 Q1	100	10,070	100,000	100,000
2020 Q2	60	5,000	50,000	50,000
2020 Q3	150	160,000	160,000	140,000
2020 Q4	330	290,000	330,000	210,000
2021 Q1	395	270,000	270,000	210,000
2021 Q2	300	100,000	100,000	100,000
2021 Q3	301	120,000	120,000	110,000
2021 Q4	330	150,000	150,000	140,000
2022 Q1	395	210,000	210,000	160,000
2022 Q2	300	100,000	100,000	100,000
2022 Q3	310	90,000	90,000	80,000
2022 Q4	340	100,000	100,000	110,000
2023 Q1	390	330,000	330,000	230,000
2023 Q2	300	100,000	100,000	—
2023 Q3	300	100,000	100,000	—
2023 Q4	540	390,000	390,000	310,000
2024 Q1	490	270,000	270,000	90,000
2024 Q2	350	100,000	100,000	210,000
2024 Q3	350	110,000	110,000	220,000
2024 Q4	520	390,000	390,000	310,000
2025 Q1	450	270,000	270,000	90,000
2025 Q2	350	100,000	100,000	90,000
2025 Q3	360	110,000	110,000	910

数据来源：SEC、国信证券经济研究所整理

从2018年第一季度至2025年第三季度北美企业债券季度发行数据来看，可以提炼出三个关键特征：
2020年Q1-Q2受疫情冲击跌至历史低谷。 2020年Q1发行仅100笔、总收益100.7亿美元，Q2进一步跌至60笔、50亿美元，为统计期内最低水平。2020年Q3起发行市场逐步恢复，Q4回升至330笔、290亿美元。
2019年Q4与2024年Q4为两个发行峰值。 2019年Q4发行560笔、总收益530亿美元，为统计期内发行笔数最高季度；2024年Q4发行520笔、总收益390亿美元，为近年高位。两个峰值分别对应2019年末的融资高峰和2024年AI投资驱动的发债潮。
2023年Q4后发行市场保持高位运行。 2023年Q4发行540笔、总收益390亿美元，2024年Q1发行490笔、270亿美元，Q4再度攀升至520笔、390亿美元。2025年Q1-Q3发行量稳定在350-450笔，总收益100-270亿美元区间，反映企业债券市场在AI资本开支驱动下维持活跃。