您的当前位置：首页 > 行业数据 > 在美国投资级别企业债券市场，美国国债收益率占名义收益率的85%

在美国投资级别企业债券市场，美国国债收益率占名义收益率的85%

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所属报告：

汇丰银行：2025年第四季投资展望：把握人工智能崛起及减息机遇报告（37页）.pdf

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150个基点，联邦基金利率也只是处我们注意到，所有市场的投资于中性水平（即美联储所指的3%）。级别信贷利差均处于偏窄水平，其中置，主要基于利率（即发达市场国债美国的利差更处于周期低位。然而，收益率）而非利差策略，因为在美国投资级别企业债券市场，利率占名义益率，从而压缩企业借贷所需的风险溢价。若对此轮期限溢价急升作出调期，以期受惠于长短息差扩大和降息上升，我们近日把美国、澳洲和加拿整，或从整体收益率的角度来看，企预期。市场对投资级别债券需求殷业债券并未显得过于昂贵。利差偏窄切，加上信贷评级上调，持续提供支和偏高。这是我们在原先已对欧洲和持，一旦宏观经济数据恶化，或可就英国市场持温和偏高观点的基础上，因素提供支持。实质上，市场对企业息差扩大提供缓冲。进一步提升青睐度。有信心，加上企业财务状况有所改对财政滑坡、“去美元化”传善，与公共财政恶化形成对比。闻，以及美联储独立性备受威胁的忧虑，均引发期限溢价上升，但我们认为这些媒体报导言过其实。举例说, 标普全球评级近期指出，贸易关税收对美国财政预算的影响，使美国能够定展望。的估值偏高，尤其考虑到经济略为放缓，但其息差处于高水平，支持我们维持中性立场。至于新兴市场，美元疲弱，为当地利率风险溢价收窄提供支持，增因素并继续宽松政策的信心。然而，在上半年强势扬升后，本币债券的估值似乎已偏高。因此，我们对新兴市长久期美国国债收益率的风险溢价仍然较高，而风险溢价有望收窄，或使其场本类债券维持中性立场，偏好印度和印度尼西亚等高收益国家，这些国家的通胀迅速降温，央行加快宽松政策，使其息差具吸引力。虽然我们对场，但对新兴市场企业美元债持温和偏高观点，尤其是中国。我们以投资级别债券为重点，主要关注科技、银明，采取主动的债券选择策略日益重要。一些企业可能具备较有利条件, 可望驾驭这个市场环境。我们认为金良好，因其资本实力雄厚、不良贷款水平偏低，而且面对关税影响展现韧

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