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图2.内蒙古铝冶炼厂在当前政策轨迹下的平均碳成本，2023-30年

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所属报告：

气候转型亚洲（Transition Asia）：2025中国碳排放交易体系对铝行业的影响-聚焦中国前三大铝生产省份内蒙古（9页）.pdf

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在各评估变量中，最显著的影响来自于电力行业ETS发电碳成本全覆盖的情景，即取消基准值企业需要全额支付其碳排放的情况。在该情景下，铝冶炼厂到2030年的碳成本可能会提高到1,500元/吨铝以 ·当前政策轨迹情景，根据电力行业ETS和可再生能源替代政策分析冶炼厂碳成本的变化趋势。依照当前电上。在加速ETS情景下，ETS价格的快速上涨也可以显著提高碳成本，2030年碳成本将升至620元／吨力行业ETS规定，计算仅考虑自备燃煤电厂发电的直接排放。铝，比2024的峰值增长了136元。 ·增强ETS影响情景，以当前政策轨迹情景为基础，探索在更高ETS价格（加速ETS情景）和更严格ETS法相比之下，在铝业ETS合规情景下，刚宣布将铝冶炼纳入ETS的政策仅会对铝冶炼的碳成本造成极微规（零基准情景）下的碳成本。小的影响。参考欧盟ETS在第三阶段和第四阶段的基准变化，将铝冶炼纳入ETS后，到2030年铝冶炼，铝业ETS合规情景，探索铝冶炼流程需承担的碳成本。该情景涵盖冶炼厂的直接温室气体排放，包括阳企业的成本仅会增加约8元/吨铝。其主要原因是政策范围有限，仅涵盖生产流程相关的直接二氧化碳极效应产生的全氟碳化物（PFC），即CF4和C2F6，以及由于预焙阳极消耗的过程相关的直接二氧化碳排排放和PFC排放。而其他大额排放源例如间接电力的使用或者铝土矿冶炼流程都未包含在内。即使在将排放强度基准取消的全成本情景下，铝业ETS相关的平均碳成本到2030年也仅达到250元/吨铝，远中国ETS规则适用于所有年排放量超过2.6万吨二氧化碳的火电厂，自备电厂也包含在内。影响最终碳成本低于电力行业ETS的影响。的两个主要变量是：1.ETS市场价格；2.电厂的碳强度。中国ETS法规根据具体技术设定基准碳强度，例购买配额实现履约，并且交易需要覆盖的总排放量仅限于高于基准的部分。尽管铝冶炼业参与ETS的详细信息尚未公布，本模型假设碳成本计算逻辑会基于实际排放与基准排放之间的差额计算。需要注意的是，冶炼厂也可以使用电网电力。但是，电网电力的碳成本是由发电商承担，而非消费者。所以这些间接排放未被纳入本研究的范围。在当前政策轨迹情景中，基于碳价的上行趋势和愈发收紧的碳排放权市场规则，我们预计内蒙古冶炼厂的平均碳成本将从2021年的约120元/吨铝上升到2030年的400元/吨铝。该成本相当于2025年铝锭平均价格的2% 。当前政策轨迹情景还考虑了当前已建和2030年前规划建设的自备可再生能源电厂。到2030年，投资建设自备可再生能源发电设施的冶炼厂将较未投资的冶炼厂平均节省约90元/吨铝的碳成本。尽管这一情况令人鼓舞，内蒙古的铝企业仍需大幅增加可再生能源的使用，才能实现煤电自备电厂向可再生能源的转型。另一方面，模型还评估了技术进步的影响。当前全球最佳的可用技术（BAT），是中国山东魏桥拥有的全球最大600KA预焙电解槽，这是当今最节能的铝冶炼设备之一。如果冶炼厂均使用BAT技术，最多只能节省10 在当前政策轨迹情景下，内蒙古铝冶炼厂的平均碳成本预计将稳步上升，到2030年将达到约400元/吨元/吨铝的碳成本。这个结论基于假设，冶炼厂能耗从13.6兆瓦时/吨铝减少到12.6兆瓦时/吨铝，同时所有其铝。ETS价格上涨、更加严格的ETS排放强度基准是碳成本增加的主要驱动因素。他变量保持2021年水平不变。并且，内蒙古的冶炼厂相对规模较大、效率较高，这为进一步改进的空间有限，即使全面采用BAT，所能带来的碳成本节约也是有限的，不足以从根本上推动脱碳进程。模型显示，内蒙古煤炭自备电厂的碳强度均高于电力ETS设定的基准值。若将此情况推广至大多数铝企业，为了让读者更直观的了解ETS的影响，我们以中国铝业的数据为例进行测算。这源于中国铝业较高的数据透明度。2025年上半年，中国铝锭的平均价格在2万元/吨左右波动，因此，最大碳成本约为当前铝锭价格的2%。对于中国铝业来说，这相当于铝锭价格2%的碳成本可能导致资本回报率（ROCE）下降2.3%。2023年，中铝的ROCE约为15%，营业收入为150亿元，使用资本990亿元，电解铝产量为680万吨。若在测算中将每吨铝增加400元的碳成本纳入ROCE计算，可以得出ROCE下降2.3% 和营业利润下降约18%。

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