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图4.冶炼厂A在当前政策轨迹情景下的碳成本，2026-30年

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所属报告：

气候转型亚洲（Transition Asia）：2025中国碳排放交易体系对铝行业的影响-聚焦中国前三大铝生产省份内蒙古（9页）.pdf

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行业的脱碳并不是简单的线性过程。虽然计算整个自治区范围的平均值可以为该区铝行业的减碳进 2023年，内蒙古政府正式发布了可再生能源替代政策，鼓励企业用自备可再生能源电厂替代自备燃煤程预测提供有用的参考，但这可能会掩盖个别冶炼厂的具体情况。例如，冶炼厂A计划在2026年增电厂。这些可再生能源电力必须在现场消纳，不允许接入公共电网。在当前政策轨迹情景中，我们加300兆瓦的太阳能发电和350兆瓦的风能发电容量，以支持其现有的700兆瓦自备煤电。这一转变计算了计划中的自备光伏和风电装机之外，冶炼厂仍需的煤电装机。假设可再生能源发电小时数等于 2023年水平，光伏和风电装机会替代一部分煤电装机，从而减少了自备煤电厂的用量占比，并节省了预计将把该厂煤电用量的份额减少22%，并降低30%的碳成本，相当于每吨铝节约62元。相应的碳成本。10 按照计划，冶炼厂A将在2027年启动三个新的燃煤发电机组，将其自备煤电份额从78%提高到约90% ，这实际上会逆转上述收益。目前尚不清楚这些燃煤机组是否仍会按计划建设，或是否已获得批准，但如果避免这些新的煤电机组，在当前政策轨迹情景下，冶炼厂到2030年可以节省多达100元/ 在当前政策轨迹情景中，配备可再生能源发电项目的冶炼厂在2030年生产每吨铝的碳成本将达到356 元，而没有可再生能源发电项目的冶炼厂则需为每吨铝产品额外支付约90元，总计450元/吨铝。值得到2025年，内蒙古的铝业企业将安装约400兆瓦的光伏和风电装机。到2030年，风电和光伏装机容量将分别达到2,220兆瓦和940兆瓦，这些可再生能源发电容量都被纳入了我们的模型进，并且实现了同冶炼厂的一一对应。模型中包含的最大项目是中铝包头铝业拥有的1吉瓦风电和200兆瓦太阳能电厂，该项目还配备了2小时240兆瓦的电池储能。然而，这些电池储能的规模不足，无法实现白天储存可再生能源对铝业企业而言，建设规模更大且具有更高电流强度的冶炼厂，可以提高当前效率并降低能耗强电力并在夜间释放。为了完全替代自备燃煤电厂，区域内的铝业企业不仅需要建设更多的自备可再生能度。当前最先进的技术是山东魏桥集团拥有的600+kA 电解槽，能耗强度为12.6兆瓦时／吨铝。源电厂，由于这些设施目前无法接入电网，它们还需要配备足够的储能容量以提高可再生能源电力的利用率。此外，内蒙古应进一步推动电网的脱碳，并扩大电网基础设施，使冶炼厂能够从电网购买比自备燃煤电厂更清洁的电力，或通过专用电网连接到可再生能源电厂，直购可再生能源电力。

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