1、ECONOMIC AND STEEL MARKET OUTLOOKQ4 REPORTData up to and including,Q2 202520252026December 20253EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe current trend in EU apparent steel consumption continues to mirror weak demand conditions that emerged in the second quarter of 2022 due to war-related disruptions and rising energy p

2、rices and production costs.This negative cycle has persisted to date,mainly as a result of growing global economic uncertainty,higher interest rates before eight policy rate cuts were implemented-and overall manufacturing weakness,now also exposed to the volatility and risks arising from U.S.tariffs

3、.The consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and the energy shock on steel-using industries,along with worsened overall economic outlook,triggered a severe recession(-8%)already in 2022.These protracted downside factors further impacted apparent steel consumption,resulting in two other consecutive a

4、nnual drops in 2023 and 2024(-6%and-1%,respectively).In 2025 apparent steel consumption is set to decline again,albeit more moderately than in previous years(-0.2%,unchanged from our previous outlook).This will be driven by the expectedalbeit difficult to quantifyimpact of U.S.tariffs and the result

5、ing uncertainty and trade-related.In 2026,apparent steel consumption is projected to finally recover(+3%,marginally revised from+3.1%),conditional on a positive evolution of the industrial outlook and an easing of global tensions,both of which remain unpredictable at this stage.economic and steel ma

6、rket outlook 2025-2026fourth quarter reportThe overall evolution of steel demand remains subject to very high uncertainty.No improvement in apparent steel consumption is expected before the first quarter of 2026,and consumption volumes are expected to remain far below pre-pandemic levels.EU STEEL MA