阿波罗全球管理： 2026年美国经济展望报告： 14个关键洞察点（英文版）（23页）.pdf

1、2026 Outlook:The Year Ahead in 14 SparksTorsten Slok,Apollo Chief EconomistDECEMBER 2025 ATLWAA-20251215-5064518-15966150128121921Table of ContentsA Letter from Torsten SlokHeadwinds 45 Million People Have a Federal Student Loan Quantifying Student Loan Balances Delinquency Rates Rising for Student

2、Loans Savings Across Income Distribution A K-Shaped Economy for ConsumersTailwinds Weekly Bankruptcy Filings Trending Down The One Big Beautiful Bill Will Boost GDP Growth Strong Foreign Demand for US Assets After Liberation DayThe AI Story AI Adoption Rates Starting to Flatten Out Across All Firm S

3、izes Capex Share of Operating Cash Flow for Hyperscalers:60%Basically No Growth in Corporate Capex Outside of AI Profit Margins Rising for the S&P 7&Declining for the S&P 493 2026 Earnings Expectations Revised Up for the Mag 7&Down for Everyone Else Slowdown in Growth in Data Center ConstructionKey

4、TakeawaysAbout the AuthorATLWAA-20251215-5064518-1596615012026 OUTLOOK:THE YEAR AHEAD IN 14 SPARKSResilience Meets Momentum The main story of 2025 has been the strength of the US economy.Growth has repeatedly exceeded expectations,including at times my own forecasts.This resilience has persisted des

5、pite headwinds from trade war uncertainty and tariffs,immigration restrictions and the restart of federal student loan payments.Several tailwinds have also gained momentum.AI and the data center boom continue to raise investments.The dollar has weakened.And the Congressional Budget Office(CBO)projec

6、ts that the“One Big Beautiful Bill”will raise GDP by almost a full percentage point in 2026.1 2025 Apollo Global Management,Inc.All Rights Reserved.Torsten Slok,PhD Partner,Apollo Chief EconomistA Letter from Torsten SlokAgainst this backdrop,some central themes are emerging as we enter 2026:Brief s